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KOF Economic Barometer: Stabilization at a low level

The KOF Economic Barometer has halted its downward movement, at least for the time being. At 94.7 points, however, the barometer is still well below its long-​term average. The Swiss economy is therefore likely to grow with below-​average rates in the upcoming months.

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 1.6 points, from 93.1 points in September (revised from 93.2 points) to 94.7 points. This increase is attributable in particular to bundles of indicators from the banking and insurance sector as well as from accommodation and food service activities. Furthermore, indicators regarding foreign demand and other services are pointing in a slightly less negative direction than in the previous month. On the other hand, indicators from the manufacturing sector record a slight decline.

In the goods producing sectors (manufacturing and construction), the indicators on the number of employees and on barriers to production burden the development. Export prospects are also subdued in the coming months. However, production is expected to develop somewhat more positively, albeit still below average.

Within the manufacturing sector, the indicators also point in different directions depending on the industry. The changes in the indicators for the metal industry, the electrical industry and machinery and vehicle producers are clearly negative. The indicators for the wood, glass, stone and earth industries, the paper and printing industry and the chemicals, pharmaceuticals and plastics industries, on the other hand, show an improvement.

KOF Economic Barometer, October 2019

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KOF Economic Barometer, October 2019

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Deviations of the va riable groups from the long-termgroup mean, which is standardized at 100. The va riables includedin the KOF Economic Barometer are divided into groups. The group values are calculated from the weighted group totalscomputed fromthe individual va riable weights. Example: A group va lue of 102.0 means that the weighted group total de-viates upwards by 2.0 fromthe group ave rage. A contribution of 98.0 means that the weighted group total deviatesdownwards by -2.0 fromthe group ave rage. The total deviations of all groups fromtheir respectivegroup ave rage plus100 resu lts in the value of the KOF Economic Baromete

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KOF Zurich
KOF Swiss Economic Institute defines itself as one of the leading economic “think tanks” in Switzerland. In this prospect, KOF (acronym for the German word "Konjunkturforschungsstelle", which means business cycle research institute) aims to play two roles, one as a mediator between a broader public (politics, society) and the research community, and one as a leading platform for economists, especially within Switzerland.
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