2020-10-05

Things change, supposedly immutable systems crumble and delusions die. That’s the lay of the land in the  The Empire of Uncertainty I described yesterday.

2020-10-02

Anyone claiming they can project the trajectory of the U.S. and global economy is deluding themselves. Normalcy depends entirely on everyday life being predictable. To be predictable, life must
be stable, which means that there is a high level of certainty in every aspect of life.

2020-09-30

The dollar continues to soften as risk-off sentiment ebbs; the first presidential debate will take place tonight. House Democrats have staked out their latest position at $2.2 trln; there is a fair amount of US data out today; Brazil has come under renewed pressure from fiscal concerns.

2020-09-29

Virus numbers are rising across Europe and the US; the dollar is softening as risk-off sentiment ebbs. It is a fairly quiet day in the US; there is a glimmer of hope about a fiscal deal in the US; recent US data support the widely held view that more stimulus is needed.

2020-09-28

Persistent risk-off impulses weighed on EM last week and that may continue this week. The Asian currencies outperformed last week while MXN, ZAR, and COP underperformed, and we expect these divergences to continue. Despite optimism about a stimulus package in the US, we think it remains a long shot. Meanwhile, virus numbers are rising in Europe and the US, with data from both regions likely to continue weakening.

2020-09-13

The dollar rally ran out of steam; US Senate will hold a vote today on its proposed “skinny” bill. US reports August PPI and weekly jobless claims; US will sell $23 bln of 30-year bonds today after a sloppy 10-year auction yesterday
BOC delivered a hawkish hold yesterday; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%.