Monthly Archive: November 2017

Switzerland Unemployment in October 2017: Remained unchanged at 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 3.1 percent

2017-11-09

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2017-11-09

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a. October 2017
Registered unemployment in October 2017 - According to surveys by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), 134,800 unemployed people were registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV) at the end of October 2017, 1,631 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the month under review. Compared with the same month last year, unemployment fell by 9,731 (-6.7%).

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Trust in online content takes a big hit

2017-11-09

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2017-11-09

Internet users in Switzerland rate their computer skills as good, but trust in online news content has dropped significantly, according to a survey by the University of Zurich. An overwhelming majority (83%) of users stated they can easily distinguish between important and unimportant online activities.

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How Will Bitcoin React in a Financial Crisis Like 2008?

2017-11-09

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2017-11-09

Bitcoin Distribution
Whenever I raise the topic of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, I feel like an agnostic in the 30 Years War between Catholics and Protestants. There is precious little neutral ground in the crypto-is-a-bubble battle; one side is absolutely confident that bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies are in a tulip-bulb type bubble, while the other camp is equally confident that we ain't seen nuthin' yet in terms of bitcoin's future valuation.

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Four Point One

2017-11-09

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2017-11-09

US Establishment Survey Payrolls, Jan 2010 - Jul 2017
The payroll report for October 2017 was still affected by the summer storms in Texas and Florida. That was expected. The Establishment Survey estimates for August and September were revised higher, the latter from a -33k to +18k. Most economists were expecting a huge gain in October to snapback from that hurricane number, but the latest headline was just +261k.

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Let’s Clear Up One Confusion About Bitcoin

2017-11-09

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2017-11-09

Bitcoin One-year Chart, Jan - Oct 2017
If bitcoin can be converted into fiat currencies at a lower transaction cost than the fiat-to-fiat conversions made by banks and credit card companies, it's a superior means of exchange. One of the most common comments I hear from bitcoin skeptics goes something like this: Bitcoin isn't real money until I can buy a cup of coffee with it. In other words, bitcoin fails the first of the two core tests of "money": that it is a means of exchange and a...

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Credit Spreads: The Coming Resurrection of Polly

2017-11-09

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2017-11-09

FED, ECB and BoJ Assets, 2002 - 2016
Suspicion isn’t Merely Asleep – It is in a Coma (or Dead). There is an old Monty Python skit about a parrot whose lack of movement and refusal to respond to prodding leads to an intense debate over what state it is in. Is it just sleeping, as the proprietor of the shop that sold it insists? A very tired parrot taking a really deep rest?

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Health insurance rise in 2018 even higher, according to new calculation

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

Health Insurance
At the end of September the Swiss government announced an average nationwide health premium rise of 4% in 2018. This government calculation is rather narrow. It only looks at the price of standard compulsory insurance, including accident cover, for an adult with a CHF 300 deductible. Price comparison site bonus.ch calculates that this policy configuration only applies to 18.3% of residents.

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A Different Powelling – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

Wall Street dispenses appointment advice to Field Marshall Trump
Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Stumbling UK Economy Shows Importance of Gold

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

UK Flag
UK economy outlook bleak amid Brexit, debt woes and rising inflation. Confidence in UK housing market at five-year low. UK high street sales crash at fastest rate since 2009. Number registering as insolvent in England and Wales hit a five-year high in Q3. UK public finance hole of almost £20bn in the public finances set to grow to £36bn by 2021-22. Protect your savings with gold in the face of increased financial woes in UK.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Gridlock & The Status Quo

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

The good news is that the economy just printed its second consecutive quarter of 3% growth, a feat not accomplished since Q2 and Q3 2014. The bad news is that the growth spurt in 2014 was better, quantitatively and qualitatively. Those two quarters produced gains of 4.6% and 5.2% (annualized) in GDP, much better than the most recent 3.1% and 3% prints of Q2 and Q3 2017.

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The Savings Rate Conundrum

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

Median Disposable Income and Debt Ratio, 1967 - 2015
The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth.

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Is a Rapid Advance in the Japanese Stock Market Imminent?

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

Nikkei 225, Jan - Dec 1970 - 2017
The Japanese stock market is quite unique: it would need to rally by approximately 80% to reach its former historical peak. What’s more, said peak was attained on the final trading day of 1989, more than 25 years ago. In short, Japanese stocks have been anything but a good investment in recent years.

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Europe Is Booming, Except It’s Not

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, 1996 - 2017
European GDP rose 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2017, the eighteenth consecutive increase for the Continental (EA 19) economy. That latter result is being heralded as some sort of achievement, though the 0.6% is also to a lesser degree. The truth is that neither is meaningful, and that Europe’s economy continues toward instead the abyss.

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World’s Largest Gold Producer China Sees Production Fall 10 percent

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

China Gold Mine Production 1H 2016 vs 1H 2017
Gold mining production in China fell by 9.8% in H1 2017. Decreasing mine supply in world’s largest gold producer and across the globe. GFMS World Gold Survey predicts mine production to contract year-on-year. Peak gold production being seen in Australia, world’s no 2 producer. Peak gold production globally while global gold demand remains robust.

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Swiss Industries Announce Series of Offshoring Moves

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

The ABB electronics group announced on Monday the offshoring of up to 150 positions from its Geneva production centre, while Roche is cutting 235 people in canton Aargau. Employees and trade unions reacted angrily.

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Each Bitcoin Transaction Uses As Much Energy As Your House In A Week

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

Bitcoin
While Bitcoin bulls will probably never have it so good as they have in 2017, we wonder whether many of them have stopped to think about the environmental downside of this roaring bull market. After all, back in the dot.com boom, people had ideas about potential internet businesses, issued pieces of paper representing ownership and watched their prices go parabolic parabolic.

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The Big Reversal: Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Are Coming Our Way

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

Bank of Japan Balance Sheet, 1998 - 2016
This interaction will spark a runaway feedback loop that will smack asset valuations back to pre-bubble, pre-pyramid scheme levels. According to the conventional economic forecast, interest rates will stay near-zero essentially forever due to slow growth. And since growth is slow, inflation will also remain neutral.

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How to Survive the Winter

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

The Elbonian investigation
One of the fringe benefits of living in a country that’s in dire need of a political, financial, and cultural reset, is the twisted amusement that comes with bearing witness to its unraveling. Day by day we’re greeted with escalating madness. Indeed, the great fiasco must be taken lightly, so as not to be demoralized by its enormity.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2017: Up +0.7 percent against 2016, +0.1 percent against last month

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, Oct 2017
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in October 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.9 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week of Digestion

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Quiet week ahead. RBA and RBNZ policy meetings; no change is expected. US tax reform and the newest Fed governor, Quarles speaks. Q3 data renders September data too old to matter much.

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