Monthly Archive: April 2017

Gold Bullion Imports Into China via Hong Kong More Than Doubles in March

2017-04-30

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2017-04-30

China Gold Import, Monthly from Hong Kong, 2001 - 2017
Gold bullion imports into China via main conduit Hong Kong more than doubled month-on-month in March, data showed on Tuesday as reported by Reuters. Net-gold imports by the world’s top gold consumer through the port of Hong Kong rose to 111.647 tonnes in March from 47.931 tonnes in February, according to data emailed to Reuters by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department.

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Swiss have never moved as much as they did in 2015

2017-04-30

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2017-04-30

In Switzerland, more than a million people moved house in 2015, 12.1% of the population. The figure has never be higher, according to a report called Immo-Monitoring published by Wüest Partner. The home moving covered around 490,000 dwellings. Of those who moved, 344,000 stayed in the same commune (Gemeinde) while the other 659,000 changed municipality.

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NAFTA Trade Update

2017-04-30

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2017-04-30

The trade tensions between the US and Canada set the Canadian dollar to lows for the year. The dollar's downside momentum against the Mexican peso has eased. The Canadian dollar looks attractive not against the US dollar but against the peso.

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Housing’s Echo Bubble Now Exceeds the 2006-07 Bubble Peak

2017-04-30

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2017-04-30

US S&P Case-Shiller SF Home Price Index, 1980 - 2017
A funny thing often occurs after a mania-fueled asset bubble pops: an echo-bubble inflates a few years later, as monetary authorities and all the institutions that depend on rising asset valuations go all-in to reflate the crushed asset class.

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New 50 Swiss franc note wins international beauty contest

2017-04-29

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2017-04-29

The new 50 franc note, launched last year, was voted the best new bank note in 2016 by the International Bank Note Society, a society founded in 1961. Nearly 120 new banknotes were released worldwide in 2016. The Swiss 50 only narrowly beat the Maldive Islands 1000 Rufiyaa bill, Argentina’s 500 Peso jaguar, and the Royal Bank of Scotland’s 5 Pound first polymer note.

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Swiss wage index 2016: Nominal wage increase of 0.7 percent in 2016. Real wages rise by 1.1 percent.

2017-04-29

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2017-04-29

Development of nominal wages to the consumer prices and real wages 1990-2016
The Swiss nominal wage index rose by +0.7% on average in 2016 compared with 2015. It settled at 100.7 points (base 2015 = 100). Given a negative average annual inflation rate of -0.4%, real wages registered an increase of +1.1% (101.1 points, base 2015 = 100) according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office.

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Longevity and Income

2017-04-29

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2017-04-29

Rich people live longer than poor people in the US. This disparity undermines the progressive nature of Social Security. Disparity of income seems more important than the slowdown in growth in explaining why few US people are doing better than their parents at the age of 30.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-04-29

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2017-04-29

Moody’s moved the outlook on Vietnam’s B1 rating from stable to positive. Nigeria’s central bank introduced a new FX window for portfolio investors. Moody’s moved the outlook on Romania’s Baa3 rating from positive to stable. Central Bank of Russia accelerated its easing cycle. Central Bank of Turkey delivered a hawkish surprise. Brazil’s lower house easily approved the labor reforms, but popular resistance is rising.

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‘Dollar’ ‘Improvement’

2017-04-29

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2017-04-29

US TIC Official Buying Of US Treasury Bonds And Notes, February 2013 - February 2017
According to the headline TIC statistics, foreign central banks have in the past six months sold the fewest UST’s since the 6-month period ended November 2015. That may indicate an easing of “dollar” pressure in the private markets due to “reflation” sentiment.

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KOF Economic Barometer April: Is Easing

2017-04-28

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2017-04-28

KOF Economic Barometer, April 2017
In April, the KOF Economic Barometer does not continue its upward tendency, which started at the beginning of 2017, but has declined slightly. However, despite the decline, the indicator is still well above its long-term average. It still indicates a more dynamic economic development than at the beginning of 2017. The recovery of the Swiss economy is likely to continue, albeit with a little less momentum than indicated in the past two months.

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FX Daily, April 28: Markets Limp into Month End

2017-04-28

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2017-04-28

Equity markets are stalling into the end of the month. MSCI Asia-Pacific Index is snapping a six-day advance, and the week's gain was sufficient to extend the advancing streak for the fourth consecutive month. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trading off for the second consecutive session, after rallying for six consecutive sessions.

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Sweden’s Gold Reserves: 10,000 gold bars (pet rocks) shrouded in Official Secrecy

2017-04-28

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2017-04-28

In February 2017 while preparing for a presentation in Gothenburg about central bank gold, I emailed Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, enquiring whether the Riksbank physically audits Sweden’s gold and whether it would provide me with a gold bar weight list of Sweden’s gold reserves (gold bar holdings). The Swedish official gold reserves are significant and amount to 125.7 tonnes, making the Swedish nation the world’s 28th largest official gold...

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Who Will Live in the Suburbs if Millennials Favor Cities?

2017-04-28

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2017-04-28

America's Economic Output
Who's going to pay bubble-valuation prices for the millions of suburban homes Baby Boomers will be off-loading in the coming decade as they retire/ downsize?Longtime readers know I follow the work of urbanist Richard Florida, whose recent book was the topic of Are Cities the Incubators of Decentralized Solutions?(March 14, 2017).

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PBoC: Mechanical Tightening PBoC is China Central Bank

2017-04-28

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2017-04-28

PBOC Balance Sheet, March 2011 - March 2017
The mainstream narrative as it relates to Chinese money is “tightening.” Having survived the economic downturn last year, we are to believe that the PBOC is once again on bubble duty. They raised their reverse repo rates, considered to be their policy benchmarks, three times up to mid-March.

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SNB posts 7.9 billion CHF Profit in Q1

2017-04-27

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2017-04-27

SNB Results in the first 1 Quarters 2017: +2.2 billion CHF
The SNB reports a profit of 7.9 bn CHF, of which 2.2 bn come from the gold holdings. Given that the bank has introduced a "minimum euro rate" around 1.06-1.07, this is not very difficult. It comes at the price of continuing interventions.

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Swiss Trade Balance March 2017: Increase in Exports and Stagnation of Imports

2017-04-27

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2017-04-27

Switzerland Trade Balance, March 2017
Swiss exports are moving more and more toward higher value sectors: away from watches, jewelry and manufacturing towards chemicals and pharmaceuticals. With currency interventions, the SNB is trying to keep sectors alive, that would not survive without interventions.

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FX Daily, April 27: Several Developments ahead of the ECB meeting

2017-04-27

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2017-04-27

The ECB meeting and the press conference that follows it is the main event. However, it has had to compete with the Bank of Japan and Riksbank meetings, as well as the further reflection of the tax reform proposals by the Trump Administration yesterday.

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Draghi Does Nothing and Talks about It

2017-04-27

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2017-04-27

Draghi confirms rate on hold and maintains easing bias. Growth risks are becoming more balanced. Inflation has yet to get on a sustained upward path.

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Cracks in Ponzi-Finance Land

2017-04-27

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2017-04-27

Retail Junk Debt, April 2017
Retail Debt Debacles The retail sector has replaced the oil sector in a sense, and not in a good way. It is the sector that is most likely to see a large surge in bankruptcies this year. Junk bonds issued by retailers are performing dismally, and within the group the bonds of companies that were subject to leveraged buyouts by private equity firms seem to be doing the worst (a function of their outsized debt loads).

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To The Asian ‘Dollar’, And Then What?

2017-04-27

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2017-04-27

TIC - US Banking Data Claims On Foreigners, February 1979 - February 2017
The Bretton Woods system was intentionally set up to funnel monetary convertibility through official channels. The primary characteristic of any true gold standard is that any person who wishes can change paper claims into hard money. It was as much true in any one country as between those bound by the same legal framework (property).

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