Monthly Archive: December 2016

FX Daily, December 08: Dollar Heavy into ECB

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

FX Performance, December 08 2016 Movers and Shakers
The ECB prolonged its bond purchases, which came unexpected for markets. Consequently the EUR/CHF lost nearly half of its big gains that it registered in the beginning of the week. The ECB expects lower inflation for longer, which makes the life for the SNB harder for longer.

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ECB: Dovish Taper or Hawkish Ease?

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Mario Draghi
Purchases increased for longer but at a lower level; overall, more purchases than anticipated. Euro spiked higher on the announcement, but has subsequently dropped 2 cents. Lower inflation forecast for 2019 shows scope for a further extension.

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Gold In London And Hong Kong Is Used To Settle COMEX Futures

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Exhibit 1.
Physical gold located in Hong Kong and London is used to settle COMEX gold futures contracts through “Exchange For Physical” trading in the over-the-counter market. This post is a sequel to Understanding GOFO And The Gold Wholesale Market and COMEX Gold Futures Can Be Settled Directly With Eligible Inventory - in which Exchange For Physical (EFP) trading is explained and how it can increase or decrease open interest at the COMEX.

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Richemont cuts send shockwaves from Geneva to mountain valleys

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Exports of Swiss Watches Decline for 16th Month
Richemont’s plan to slash 210 watchmaking jobs in Switzerland is sending shockwaves from Geneva to some of the country’s remote mountain villages, the cradle of high-end watch manufacturing. In Le Sentier, a town perched in the middle of the Jura mountain range, straddling the border between France and Switzerland, some 400 people protested Thursday against plans to cut the workforce of Vacheron Constantin and Piaget.

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Cool Video: Discussing the ECB on Bloomberg TV

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Marc Chandler
Tired of reading what analysts are saying? Here is a 4.3 minute video clip of my discussion earlier today on Bloomberg TV about the outlook for tomorrow's ECB meeting. The discussion covers various aspects of the ECB's decision.

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Populism in America: “Follow the Money”

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Shares of Gross Domestic Income
If you want to understand today's populism, don't look to the mainstream media's comically buffoonish propaganda blaming the Russians: look at the four issues listed below. One of the most disturbing failures of the mainstream media in this election cycle was its complete lack of historical context for Trump's brand of populism.If you consumed the mainstream media's coverage of the campaign and election, you noted their obsession with speech acts...

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ECB and the Future of QE

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

ECB will likely extend asset purchases in full. It may modify the rules by which it buys securities. It may adjust the rules of engagement for its securities lending program.

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FX Daily, December 07: Greenback is Broadly Steady While Sterling Slides

2016-12-07

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2016-12-07

FX Performance, December 07 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. Sterling is the notable exception, losing about 0.75% to trade at three-day lows. It was on the defensive in early European turnover but got the run pulled from beneath by the unexpectedly poor data. UK industrial output fell by 1.3% in October. The median forecast was for a small increase.

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Wie die SNB durch Kapitalsteuern die Schweizer Wirtschaft belastet

2016-12-07

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2016-12-07

Vor dem Hintergrund eines angeblich „schwachen Wirtschaftswachstums“ rechtfertigte SNB-Chef Thomas Jordan neulich in einem Interview in der Tagespresse die SNB-Negativzinsen und bezeichnete diese als „expansiv“. Nur: Sind Negativzinsen wirklich „expansiv“? Sind diese nicht viel eher „restriktiv“ und bremsen unsere Wirtschaft – bewirken also genau das Gegenteil von dem, was die SNB behauptet?

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Over 4,000 studios for rent. Standing room only. Telephone included.

2016-12-07

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2016-12-07

Swiss phone box
The contractural requirement for Swisscom to provide every commune with a telephone box comes to an end at the end of next year. Late last week, the Federal Council adopted a new plan that will come into force in 2018. Internet subscriptions without a fixed phone contract should also be part of the new plan.

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Our “Gaslight” Economy

2016-12-07

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2016-12-07

Civilian Unemployment Rate
If you don't like what these charts are saying, please notify The Washington Post to add the St. Louis Federal Reserve to its list of Russian propaganda sites. Yesterday I described our gaslight financial system. Today we'll look at our gaslight economy. Correspondent Jason H. alerted me to the work of author Thomas Sheridan ( Puzzling People: The Labyrinth of the Psychopath), who claims to have coined the term gaslighting.

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Greek Bonds may Soon be Included in ECB Purchases

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

The ECB accepts Greek bonds as collateral but does not include them in its asset purchases. A new staff-level agreement by the end of the year could change that. Finance ministers imply that Greece's debt is sustainable, but the IMF disagrees.

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Gold Price Skyrockets in India after Currency Ban – Part V

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

Modi Prime Minester of India
India’s Prime Minister announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes will no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, and Part-IV, which provide updates on the rapidly encroaching police state

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Switzerland Consumer Price Index in November 2016: -0.3 percent against 2015, -0.2 percent against last month

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

Swiss consumer price inflation remain the lowest in comparison with different countries in the euro zone and the United States. Consumer prices in the U.S. are driven by rising health care costs and asset price inflation in shelter. In Europe, we see the opposite phenomenon: Rents in Italy or Spain are steady or falling. In Germany and Switzerland rent control prevents that asset price inflation moves into consumer prices. In Switzerland, more and...

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FX Daily, December 06: You Can Almost Hear a Pin Drop

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

FX Performance, December 06 2016 Movers and Shakers
The foreign exchange market is quiet. Ranges are narrow, with the US dollar mostly consolidating against the major currencies. Given the push lower yesterday, the shallowness of its recovery warns of the greenback's downside correction after strong gains last month may not be complete.

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Dang It! Gold was Supposed to Go Up! Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

Gold and Scales
Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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US True Money Supply Growth Jumps, Part 1: A Shift in Liabilities

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

TMS-2 and Total Loans and Leases YoY change
The growth rates of various “Austrian” measures of the US money supply (such as TMS-2 and money AMS) have accelerated significantly in recent months. That is quite surprising, as the Fed hasn’t been engaged in QE for quite some time and year-on-year growth in commercial bank credit has actually slowed down rather than accelerating of late. The only exception to this is mortgage lending growth – at least until recently. Growth in mortgage loans is...

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Yen and US Yields

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

Dollar-yen has been driven by the sharp rise in US bond yields. There are some (dollar) bearish divergences in the JPY/USD technicals. US 10-year yields may also be putting in a near-term top.

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Great Graphic: Dollar Index Update

2016-12-05

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2016-12-05

The Dollar Index's technical tone has deteriorated. It is corresponding to the easing of US rates and a narrowing differential. The risk is that the correction can continue in the coming days.

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FX Daily, December 05: Dollar Comes Back Bid, but Still Vulnerable to Corrective Pressures

2016-12-05

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2016-12-05

FX Performance, December 05 2016 Movers and Shakers
After softening ahead of the weekend, the US dollar has begun the new week on a firm note. It is gaining against most major and emerging market currencies. Outside of what appears to be a staged call between US President Elect Trump and the Taiwanese President, the developments in Europe grabbed the markets' attention. Austria turned back the populist right Freedom Party's bid for the presidency. The Freedom Party does not appear to have carried...

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