by George Dorgan
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It only needs a few years until democratically elected presidents become so-called “tyrants” and “dictators”. The bad economic situation in many emerging markets and Russia, and therefore also in Ukraine, has taken its toll. Demonstrators and Ukrainian nationalists toppled a president that has a Russian mother tongue. But Yanukovych was a protector of the country’s unity.
Should the Ukraine continue to be a single nation, then the Russian-speakers can find solace. In 2020 a new president will be elected and that one will be again pro-Russian.
The reason: The global economic cycle is against Russia and the Ukraine. With the new pro-Western government the economic situation will become worse and worse in the upcoming years. EU and IMF restructuring and austerity measures in Ukraine might intensify it. Western investors are not compatible with the Ukrainian mentality. They will not come to Ukraine because they are now fearful about emerging markets with bad financial bases. Russian investors that are compatible with the mentality, however, will leave the country.
Revolutions happen about every ten years in this country. The last one, the Orange Revolution of 2004 and the resulting government ended in orange chaos and dis-accord among the parties – this despite the economic boom. In 2007 the previously outed pro-Russians (e.g. Yanukovych’s Party of the Regions) won the elections. In 2010 presidential elections , Yanokovych was elected and became president. The regular five years shift from East to West and back, has now turned to the “street-elected over-throwers” from Western Ukraine, before it will move back to the “democratically elected dictators” from Eastern Ukraine with the elections from 2018 on.
As opposed to Turkey’s Erdogan and Egypt’s military leader Sisi, Yanukovych is a very weak leader and was just kind, possibly too kind with the opposition. On several occasions he made concessions to the opposition, e.g. that they could take the post as prime minister. While Turkey’s Erdogan and Egypt’s Sisi used tear gas in many occasions, Yanukovych was often too shy to use this weapon or he did not have enough support in the police. But on February 20 and 21, 2014 things escalated. 75 people died. Who were the snipers is still unknown, most of English-speaking media speak of government troops, others saying the opposition forces were shooting.
It has become a regular job for Swiss jurisdiction. Each time when a government is outed and the country was not a pure democracy then the former leaders are a accused of money laundering. This time they will investigate Yanukovych’s financial flows. We remember well that former Oligarch Yulia Tymoshenko is accused of money laundering at a U.S. court. Her funds at Credit Suisse could be blocked. The question who is more corrupt in Ukraine, the pro-Russians or pro-Ukrainians. More about Tymoshenko strange past here.
Ethno-linguistic map of Ukraine and votes of last presidential elections, blue color means electors of president Yanukovych
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Tags: Ukraine
