Tag Archive: Ukraine

Weekly Market Pulse: No News Is…

Nothing happened last week. Stocks and bonds and commodities continued to trade and move around in price but there was no news to which those movements could be attributed. The economic news was a trifle and what there was told us exactly nothing new about the economy.

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Is The Ruble Backed By Gold Now?

Over the past couple of weeks, we reviewed the U.S. government confiscation of gold by Executive Order in 1933. (see “Gold Confiscation: Will History Repeat Itself?” and “The Facts of Gold Confiscation: The Saga Continues”).

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BOJ Steps-Up its Efforts, US 2-10 Curve steepens, and the Dollar Softens

Overview:  A pullback in US yields yesterday and the Bank of Japan's stepped-up efforts to defend the Yield Curve Control policy helped extend the yen's recovery.  This spurred profit-taking on Japanese stocks, where the Nikkei had rallied around 11% over the past two weeks. 

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Ukraine conflict: A dispassionate analysis

I realize that I shouldn’t be surprised at the way the crisis in Ukraine has divided our societies or at the blind fanaticism the conversations around it have provoked. After all, virtually every other development of consequence has tuned out exactly the same. From covid to the economy and from freedom of speech to science itself, rational, respectful and productive debates are nowhere to be found.

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Calmer Markets: Hope Springs Eternal

Overview:  Interest rates continue to rise, but equities are looking through it today and the dollar is drawing less succor.  Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher.  With half of Shanghai in lockdown, Chinese equities were unable to join the regional advance.  Europe's Stoxx 600, led by energy and consumer discretionary sectors, is rising for the third consecutive sessions. US futures have a small upward bias. 

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Yields Jump, Greenback Bid

Overview: Yields are surging.  Canada and Australia's two-year yields have jumped 20 bp, with the US yield up 10 bp to 2.37% ahead of the $50 bln sale later today.  The US 10-year yield has risen a more modest three basis points to 2.50%, flattening the 2-10-year yields curve.  The 5–30-year curve has inverted for the first time since 2016. 

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The Fed Has No Idea What’s Coming Next!

We will let you know what we are doing once we know what we are doing was the message from the Federal Reserve statement and Chair Powell’s press conference that followed.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Is This A Bear Market?

I don’t know the answer to the question posed in the title. No one does because the future is not predictable. I don’t know what will happen in Ukraine. I don’t know how much what has already happened there – and what might – matters to the US and global economy. I don’t know if the Fed is making a mistake by (likely) hiking interest rates by an entire 1/4 of 1% this week.

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China and Hong Kong Stocks Plummet, Yields Soar

Overview: While the World Health Organization debates about downgrading Covid from a pandemic, the rise China and Hong Kong cases is striking.  A lockdown in Shenzhen and restrictions in Shanghai, coupled with a record fine by PBOC officials on Tencent drove local stocks sharply lower.  China's CSI 300 fell 3% and a measure of Chinese stocks that trade in HK plunged more than 7%. 

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Risk Assets Given a Reprieve

Overview: US equities failed to sustain early gains yesterday, but risk appetites have returned today.  Asia Pacific equities had a poor start, with Chinese and Japanese indices losing ground, but the equity benchmarks in Taiwan, Australia, India, and most of the smaller markets traded higher.  Taiwan's 1.1% gain is notable as foreign investors continued to be heavy sellers. 

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JERM WARFARE WITH ASTRID STUCKELBERGER & CLAUDIO GRASS & BREAKING FREE FROM COVID MADNESS

Astrid Stuckelberger and Claudio Grass have been on my podcast before.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Oil Shock

Crude oil prices rose over 25% last week and as I sit down to write this evening the overnight futures are up another 8% to around $125. Almost every other commodity on the planet rose in prices last week too, as did the dollar. Those two factors – rising dollar and rising commodity prices – mean the likelihood of recession in the coming year has risen significantly in just the last week.

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SWIFT Isn’t The ‘Nuclear Option’ For Russia, Because Russia can sell the dollars elsewhere and NOT via Swift

As everyone “knows”, the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency which can only leave the US government in control of it. Participation is both required and at the pleasure of American authorities. If you don’t accept their terms, you risk the death penalty: exile from the privilege of the US dollar’s essential business.From what little most people know about that essential business, it seems like it has something to do with that thing called...

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Russia’s Military Action Shakes Markets

Overview: News that the separatists were calling on Moscow for military assistance began the risk-off move, and Russia hitting targets across Ukraine has rippled across the capital markets.  Equites have been upended.  Most bourses in the Asia Pacific region were off 2%-3%, while the Stoxx 600 in Europe gapped lower and is off around 3.5% in late morning dealings. 

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Inflation and Geopolitics in the Week Ahead

The Omicron variant may be less fatal than the earlier versions, but it is disrupting economies. The surge in the Delta variant well into Q4 in the US and Europe was already slowing the recoveries.  Investors will likely take the high-frequency real sector data with the proverbial pinch of salt until January data available beginning later this month.

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The Secret History Of The Banking Crisis

Accounts of the financial crisis leave out the story of the secretive deals between banks that kept the show on the road. How long can the system be propped up for? It is a decade since the first tremors of what would become the Great Financial Crisis began to convulse global markets. Across the world from China and South Korea, to Ukraine, Greece, Brexit Britain and Trump’s America it has shaken our economy, our society and latterly our politics.

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Money, Markets, & Mayhem – What To Expect In The Year Ahead

If you thought 2016 was full of market maelstroms and geopolitical gotchas, 2017's 'known unknowns' suggest a year of more mayhem awaits... Here's a selection of key events in the year ahead (and links to Bloomberg's quick-takes on each).

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“This Is Total Chaos” – Venezuela Shuts Colombia Border To Stop “Mafia” Currency Smuggling

As if things were not already chaotic enough in the socialist utopia of Venezuela, following President Nicolas Maduro's decision to follow Indian PM Modi's playbook and announce that the nation's largest denomination bill (100-Bolivars - worth around 3c) will be pulled from circulation in 72 hours, he has tonight closed the border to Colombia to crackdown on currency smuggling by so-called "mafias".

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Financial Revolution: ECB Blames You For Negative Interest Rates

Simon Black of the Sovereign Man explain how revolutions start. Using negative rates, the ECB blames the own people that it is saving too much. But revolutions can also start in the financial system and lead to its collapse.

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FINMA Fines UBS, All Markets are Manipulated?

Gold and Silver Are Manipulated Deutsche Bank admitted today that it participated with other big banks in manipulating gold and silver prices. In 2014, Switzerland’s financial regulator (FINMA) found “serious misconduct” and a “...

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