Der frühere UBS-Banker und Ökonom George Dorgan sieht in der Debatte um die Goldinitiative vier Fronten aufeinander prallen. Dabei wird die Abstimmung über das Schweizer Gold immer mehr zu einem Entscheid über den Fortbestand oder die Abschaffung des Euro-Mindestkurses.
The recognized Austrian economist Keith Weiner and the Wall Street Journal argue that the SNB must keep the euro over 1.20 in order maintain stability in the Swiss banking system. A rapid appreciation of the franc would create losses on the balance sheet of Swiss banks.
To identify the reasons for the weak gold price in the late 1990s we analyze sector balances. Effectively private spending and private debt went in two different directions: a heavy increase in private spending and debt in the U.S. as opposed to less private spending growth and debt in the rest of world. This enforced U.S. GDP growth and weakened other countries. Markets thought that this could continue for years and created the dot com bubble on top of it that strengthened technology stocks and the related currency, the dollar.
This rare combination let to excessively weak oil and gold prices.
Das Thema der “Abstimmungs-Arena” im Schweizer Fernsehen war „Gefährdet die Gold-Initiative die Handlungsfreiheit der SNB“? Dieser Blog versucht zu vermitteln, dass die SNB ihre Handlungsfreiheit im Sinne der Einhaltung der Preisstabilität schon im September 2011 verloren hat, als sie den Euro-Mindestkurs einführte.
Latest gold referendum poll November 19: The latest poll shows 27% surely in favor of the gold initiative, 36% surely against the initiative. The most important development is the decision of the gold initiative to actively fight against the SNB’s minimum euro rate.
Peter Schiff, an Austrian economist who predicted the financial crisis urges the Swiss to preserve their wealth. Therefore, they should vote yes in the gold referendum. He thinks that buying gold is better than pegging to the euro. The Swiss will be better off if they possess a strong currency. Pegging to the euro implies that the Swiss Franc will become a new Italian Lira, Peseta or French Franc.
According to the latest polls 38% of voters would support the Swiss gold initiative, 47% are against it. The previous poll, recognized as more reliable, showed 45% pro gold and 38% against.
A win of the initiative would most probably imply a breakdown of the EUR/CHF floor.
According to the polls, low income groups are in favor. Effectively their purchasing power would increase when the CHF appreciates.
High income earners and stock owners are rather against it. If CHF improves Swiss stocks could collapse; this explains their voting intentions.
The place of birth of the Ukrainian leaders give us hints where the country is headed. Most of them come from the very West of Ukraine, from places that formerly were part of the Austrian-Hungarian empire, of Poland or Romania.
George Dorgan held a presentation at the CFA society in Zurich on September 1. The focus of his speech were Reasons why the EUR/CHF exchange rate will fall under 1.20 once the deflationary pressures in Europe have ended The missing link in the CFA program between its chapters on micro-economy, macro and currencies Does history repeat? From …
On November 30th, voters in Switzerland will head to the polls to vote in a referendum on gold. On the ballot is a measure to prohibit the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from further gold sales, to repatriate Swiss-owned gold to Switzerland, and to mandate that gold make up at least 20 percent of the SNB’s …
In this Cross Asset Global Macro Analysis we name our reasons for the current dollar strength. The main causes are ECB’s euro “downtalk”, tight monetary policy in Emerging Markets, rising savings of the aging populations. This leads to weak global spending and growth. With the help of Fed-financed higher asset prices and falling gasoline prices, …
We name thirteen macro-economic reasons why Russia is currently the best place for contrarian investments.
The ECB commitment to a weak euro and the maintenance of ultra-low interest rates, was a nice (temporary) gift for the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The bank earned nearly 12 billion francs in Q2/2014. Sight deposits and total SNB debt, however, have been rising again since June. But FX speculators are still driving both EUR and …