Rising Probability For A Second Payroll Minus (and its implications)
2021-01-15
Revolving consumer credit declined again in November 2020, according to data released by the Federal Reserve last week. Though the monthly seasonally-adjusted change was small, it still represents significant uncertainty and material mistrust of the underlying economic condition among a broad section of consumers.
There’s Always A First Time
2021-01-09
Is it a race against time? Or is it trying to set aside today so as to focus entirely on a specific kind of tomorrow? It’s easy to do the latter especially when today is what it is; you can’t change what’s already gone on.
Tesla Isn’t A Car Company
2020-12-03
We have the luxury, the honor, of speaking to a lot of individual investors here at Alhambra. Whether they are clients or future clients (optimism is my default condition), the most common view of stocks is that they are overvalued and a fall – a large fall – is inevitable. And there is no stock that embodies that view more than Elon Musk’s Tesla Incorporated. It was once known as Tesla Motors but Musk changed the name in early 2017. There may never have been a more successful rebranding in the history of the world.
At the time of the change the stock traded for about $50 and it was expensive for a car company. Today it trades for $585 and it is not, as I have been told repeatedly by every Tesla bull I’ve encountered, an automobile company. Now, the rebranding did take some time, the stock
Yep, There’s A New ‘V’ In Town And The Locals…Don’t Seem To Much Care For It
2020-10-25
They should be drooling over the prospects of a clearing path toward normality. The pain and disaster of 2020’s economic hole receding into a more pleasant 2021 which would have been in position to conceivably pay it all back before any long run damage.
Consumer Confidence Indicator: Anesthesia
2020-10-24
Europeans are growing more downbeat again. While ostensibly many are more worried about a new set of restrictions due to (even more overreactions about) COVID, that’s only part of the problem. The bigger factor, economically speaking, is that Europe’s economy has barely moved, or at most not moved near enough, off the bottom.
If Dollar Is Fixed By Jay’s Flood, Why So Many TIC-ked At Corporates in July?
2020-09-21
When the eurodollar system worked, or at least appeared to, not only did the overflow of real effective (if virtual and confusing) currency “weaken” the US dollar’s exchange value, its enormous excess showed up as more and more foreign holdings of US$ assets.