Why Wall Street’s Earnings Predictions Often Miss the Mark

2024-06-10

Employment Report Headlines are stronger than the underlying data shows; economic activity is slowing, but markets remain upbeat. Markets have been quiet; complacency can lead to unexpected things. Markets tested 20-DMA and rallied; will re-test that level today…again. FOMC Meeting this week + CPI Inflation data could trigger a change: Markets’ performance has been predicated on Fed rate cuts. How we get the employment numbers: Data vs surveys. The gap between households and BLS is growing; something is wrong with the adjustments. Why $20/hr minimum wage isn’t working. Look at wages vs total compensation. Employment numbers are likely to be revised downward. Analysts’ estimates are unrealistic in the face of economic data. Commodities in Boom-Bust cycles; supply/demand imbalances.

2024-06-05

Roaring Kitty’s wealth skyrocketed from $53,000 to nearly $300 million, possibly reaching $1 billion one day. Not the SEC’s favorite, but definitely notorious! #RoaringKitty #Stocks

Curious about Roaring Kitty’s extraordinary journey in the stock market? Discover how his wealth skyrocketed from $53,000 to nearly $300 million in our latest video.
– Roaring Kitty’s rise to fame in the financial world.
– The ups and downs of his public visibility.
– SEC’s perspective on Roaring Kitty’s actions.
– Key financial milestones and achievements.
– The potential for his wealth to reach $1 billion.

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2024-06-03

Will the Fed begin cutting rates and restarting monetary accommodation? Such is all that seems to matter. At the same time, investors continue to chase stocks higher based on the current theme. In 2020, it was disrupter stocks. Today, it is artificial intelligence and semiconductor providers. The markets have evolved into a “get rich quick” industry, where Wall Street creates products to fill hungry investors’ demand for the next “hot opportunity.” Such has been a boon for the index ETF industry, financial applications, and trading websites. So the momentum investing issue should be no surprise, given that investors learned to “buy risk” when the Federal Reserve increased monetary accommodation.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent

2024-05-30

Houston is finally #1 in something: Home Foreclosures; Q1 economic data suggests conflict with narrative the economy is doing fine vs anecdotal evidence. The Fed’s Beige Book summary shows not as much concern for inflation as for weakening consumer demand. Weaker stock pricing is also emerging; Can markets hold the 20-DMA? Risk assets are momentum-based trade (Bitcoin); also beginning to weaken. Hedge funds are long semiconductors and AI-related stocks: the AI theme seems to be narrowing. The difference between the Dot-com bubble and AI companies is that AI is making money. What will be the side-benefits AI generates? Note how Nvidia performs: 80% of earnings from AI Data Centers; the power requirements for supporting AI Data Centers. What will power the grid with more AI & EV demands?

2024-05-29

Economic Numbers: It’s all about the Fed, never mind the fundamentals. markets have gone essentially nowhere, driven almost entirely by Nvidia. Markets are close to a short-term sell signal. It’s time to rebalance portfolios. Corporate Greed does not cause inflation: The simple truth. 401k rollowver problems; why few receiving required 402(f) notifications; the tax implications of rollovers. If you’ve lost a 401k, Beagle.com may be able to help you find it. Why compounding doesn’t work in the market; creditor protection for retirement funds. Hampton Inn merch: Waffle socks & fanny packs; Buc-Cee’s, Cracker Barrel, Johnson Howards, & Stuckey’s; Keeping all your 401k in company stock: The Enron Error.

3:18 – The Market Driver remains Nvidia: Time to Rebalance?
14:45 – Corporate Greed Does