Why Investors Are Overpaying for Assets in Today’s Market

2024-10-10

📈 Interesting insights on gold’s overbought status! History shows a long correction may follow. Keep an eye on these dynamics! 💰 #InvestingTips #GoldMarket

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YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

2024-10-09

Numerous reader requests following our article, Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener, prompted us to write this follow-up with more detail about how to analyze agency REITs. This article doesn’t recommend specific agency REITs, but it does lay out some of the fundamental basics of the largest publicly traded agency REITs. In doing so, this analysis and the prior article provide a solid foundation for further evaluating agency REITs.

Before diving in, it’s worth noting that most agency REITs offer preferred shares. While we do not discuss them in this article, preferred shares may also prove rewarding and less risky in the current bull-steepening interest rate environment. 

(Disclosure: RIA Advisors has a position in NLY and REM in its client portfolios.)

Managing A REIT

An agency

2024-10-07

This week marks the start of earnings season for Q; the 2024 Election and the next FOMC Meeting also add volatility to markets. Friday’s Jobs report came in stronger than expected (leaving one to wonder what kind of revision to the numbers is to come). Within the report, 700k gubernment workers were added. The S&P on Friday rallied on the employment news, but that also pretty much killed any chance of a 50bps rate cut by the Fed. Markets are now in a consolidation period, setting up for a corrective cycle a head of the 2024 Election. Lance explains the bullish and bearish takes of technical analysis: Knowing when to put capital to work, and when to take it off the table. What will the market do next? Reviewing market psychology: What’s moving prices? When moving averages converge and

2024-08-09

📉 Worried about a recession? 🤔 Economic experts say consumer behavior is key. Stay tuned to see how things unfold! 💼 #Economy #ConsumerBehavior

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2024-08-08

Check out our Fear Greed Index! Investor allocations have surged from extremely low to high, indicating bullish market sentiment. 📈 #Investing #MarketTrends

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2024-08-06

Monday’s Carry Trade-inspired blowout saw lots of selling , but a little bit of recovery before the dust settled. The ISM Services Report clocked-in a little stronger than expected, taking fears of imminent Recession off the table. The Fed might not have to cut rates as much. Markets are now over sold by three standard deviations off the moving average; a bounce is in the office, but this could be the beginning of a bigger correction. Lance and Jon provide some clarification and perspective: Market points vs percentages; now vs 2020 or 1980: how much are we up since 202? Recessions are based on consumer sentiment and contraction in spending. How the "unwinding" creates another cycle of unwinding; note that 82% of S&P companies are now out of the stock buy back blackout period; some

2024-08-02

Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As shown, the latest employment report has triggered that indicator.

So, does this mean a recession is imminent? Maybe. However, we can now add this indicator to the long list of other recessionary indicators, also flashing warning signs.

As discussed in “Conference Board Scraps Its Recession Call,” the Leading Economic Index (LEI) has a long history of accurately predicting recession outcomes. As we showed, each previous decline in the 6-month rate of change in the LEI from the Conference Board has aligned with a recession. We are currently in one of the most extended periods on record