Lance Roberts
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2024-11-23
Inside This Week’s Bull Bear Report A Holiday Rally Is Likely Last week, we discussed the impact of the Trump Presidency on the financial markets based on expectations of tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation. Since then, the ”Trump Trade” went into full swing, pushing the markets higher; however, as we noted, that the trading had gotten a …
2024-11-21
A preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability?Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia’s stellar quarterly report and analysts’ expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against it as a de-dollarization asset. CNBC completely misses "first man in space" trivia question (Yuri Gagarin, not Alan Shepherd); Lance & Michael discuss Nvidia’s quarterly earnings and obscene, 55% profit margin: Does the company risk losing market share to an competitor willing to work for a piece of that pie? A discussion of the anticipated Trump Tariffs, and their impact on corporate profitability; what potential offsets will exist? What
2024-09-25
Could the S&P hit 6,000 by the end of the year? Some prognosticators are saying so, hyped on exuberance, but consumer confidence is suggesting otherwise, and the foreshadowing is not great for the White House incumbent. Consumer spending & sentiment is incongruent with market expectations. Markets remain bullish, and another "Cup & Handle" formation has appeared, suggesting higher market prices in 2025. Markets, however, are extremely deviated, which is unsustainable, and correction is inevitable. Lance reviews "peak attractiveness" among the sexes and adult dating. The Fed’s rate cut occur amid economic dichotomy; markets so SO exuberant, yet Conference Board confidence surveys reflect a different mood, with a drop in the Present Situation Index. Lance relates a "drive-by" hello on the
2024-09-23
We’re entering the last-half of September, which is typically the weaker period of an already, traditionally weak month in the markets. Earnings seasons is about to beging, and Q3 estimates have already been slashed; this isn’t 1995, though: Is the Fed’s rationaled for cutting raates going to be validated by this week’s economic data? Markets ended slightly lower on Friday, but still holding onto breakout level. Lance relate’s Mrs. Robert’s most recent holiday decor disappointment, and announces news substack channel, @lanceroberts. Shocker: The Washington Post debunks climate change data. Lance’s daughter turns 18, wants to be a veterinarian; he can taste a rate cut coming. What’s the Fed’s rationale for it’s rate cut? Charts & a history of rate cuts and reacitons. This time is NOT like
2024-07-22
Lance discusses the markets’ potential reaction to Biden’s exit from Presidential race, and whether markets’ rotation out of mega-cap stocks is sustainable; a rewind to February market conditions compared to now: A correction is expected before the election. Commentary on keeping market corrections into context; the mega-cap rotation and fewer medium- and small-cap companies from which to choose: 40% of these are unprofitable companies. As companies complete their quarterly reports, buy back will again be enabled, and that activity will add to market volume. Lance explores the potential impact of a Kamala Harris presidency. What sectors could benefit from her leadership and policies? An overview of Harris’s potential presidency and expected policy focus areas; implications for clean
2024-07-17
On December 5, 1996, Chairman of the Fed Alan Greenspan offered that stock prices may be too high, thus risking a correction that could result in an economic fallout. He wondered out loud if the market had reached a state of “irrational exuberance.”
2024-07-16
With both economic and inflation data continuing to weaken, expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising. Notably, following the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, which was weaker than expected, the odds of Fed rate cuts by September rose sharply. According to the CME, the odds of a 0.25% cut to the Fed rate are now 90%. Since January 2022, the market has repeatedly rallied on hopes of Fed cuts and a return to increased monetary accommodation. Yet, so far, each rally eventually failed as economic data kept the Federal Reserve on hold. However, as noted, the latest economic and inflation data show clear signs of weakness, which has bolstered Jerome Powell’s comments that we are nearing the point where Fed rate cuts are warranted. Given recent history, why should investors not expect a
2024-07-15
Want to make money selling? Sit above all arguments and debates. Stay realistic, avoid extreme optimism or pessimism. #InvestingTips 💰📈
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