by Lance Roberts
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Lilly Tops Nordisk In Weightloss Battle
2024-12-05
The two market-leading weight loss/obesity drugs (GLP-1), Zepabound (Eli Lilly) and Wegovy (Novo Nordisk), just completed a clinical side-by-side trial. After 72 weeks of testing on 750 obese or overweight adults with at least one medical problem, Eli Lilly came out ahead by a substantial margin. Per Eli Lilly: Zepabound provided a 47% greater relative …
Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes
2024-12-03
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify. As discussed in last week’s #BullBearReport, leverage and speculation are at the heart of many such cycles. These two powerful forces support the amplification of gains during upswings but can accelerate losses in downturns. Today’s market environment shows …
Leverage And Speculation: Signs Of A Raging Bull Market
2024-11-27
In a recent Commentary- MicroStrategy Is A Leveraged ETF In Disguise – we discussed the company’s business model, which revolves almost entirely around highly speculative bitcoin and leverage. To wit: So, what is MicroStrategy? It’s a leveraged Bitcoin fund disguised as a non-profit technology company. Regarding leverage and speculation, we also recently discussed the surging …
The 3-3-3 Rule
2024-11-26
Donald Trump nominated seasoned hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary. While the Treasury Secretary has many responsibilities, debt management is one of the most important. Therefore, given the recent scrutiny the bond market has been paying to high deficits and associated debt, Scott Bessent appears to be a timely appointment. Bessent …
11-25-24 Markets Look for a Holiday Rally
2024-11-25
Thanksgiving week is spread out before us like a serving table laden with food: Markets will trade in a holiday-shortened week with moods of expectation for high consumer spending. Lance reveals his strategy for Christina’s Christmas present. Markets’ goal is to generate 50-points, targeting S&P 6,000, despite limited downside. Bond Yields are dropping with Scott Bessent’s nomination as Treasury Secretary. The Dollar and Bitcoin are over-bought; correction necessary. How will a Sec’y Bessent affect the national debt? Eliminating Government Debt & Deficits will subtract from corporate profitability; eliminating government spending will trigger recession. Why short-term pain isn’t a bad thing in the long-term. Everyone is not expecting recession; What about risk and the CIti Surprise
10-1-24 How Long Can the ‘Everything Market’ Last?
2024-10-01
It’s a big news week: The Dock Workers’ strike has begun, Israel is launching a land assault into Lebanon, and celebrity deaths (Pete Rose, Kris Kristofferson) top the news. And Jimmy Carter turns 100. Meanwhile, Q3 Earnings Season commences after three very strong quarters of business in what has been one the of the best presidential years since the 1950’s. A correction at this point would be healthy for markets. We think there will be a 3- to 5% correction before elections, creating room for markets to rally into year’s end. Lance’s rant on the Coffee Pod scam, and the SEC doesn’t have far to look (Congress!) for insider trading. Lance and Jon look at market performance, global money flows, and observe the ‘everything market.’ Commentary on potential disruption by dock workers’ strike.
The “Everything Market” Could Last A While Longer
2024-10-01
We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally.
“It is this cocktail of ‘full support’ at the front end of a bull market which commonly has created an ‘Everything Market’ during the early part of a new bull. That is, for a period, almost everything simultaneously rises – value, growth, small, large, defensive, and cyclical stocks – and usually by a lot.
Short rates are falling, bond yields have declined, money growth is rising, fiscal stimulus has again expanded, and disinflation is still evident; and because of this new and overwhelming
Understanding S&P Yields: Avoiding High-Risk Investment Traps
2024-09-28
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