by Lance Roberts
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| Say no to credit card debt! You don't need it for a good credit score. Pay your bills on time and have the money talk with your kids. 💳 #FinancialTips Learn more: Subscribe to our YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/2b069a |
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Understanding the Fear and Greed Index: What Does It Mean for Investors?
2024-08-08
Check out our Fear Greed Index! Investor allocations have surged from extremely low to high, indicating bullish market sentiment. 📈 #Investing #MarketTrends
Want to learn more? Subscribe to our YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow
8-6-24 Is the Selling Over?
2024-08-06
Monday’s Carry Trade-inspired blowout saw lots of selling , but a little bit of recovery before the dust settled. The ISM Services Report clocked-in a little stronger than expected, taking fears of imminent Recession off the table. The Fed might not have to cut rates as much. Markets are now over sold by three standard deviations off the moving average; a bounce is in the office, but this could be the beginning of a bigger correction. Lance and Jon provide some clarification and perspective: Market points vs percentages; now vs 2020 or 1980: how much are we up since 202? Recessions are based on consumer sentiment and contraction in spending. How the "unwinding" creates another cycle of unwinding; note that 82% of S&P companies are now out of the stock buy back blackout period; some
The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators
2024-08-02
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As shown, the latest employment report has triggered that indicator.
So, does this mean a recession is imminent? Maybe. However, we can now add this indicator to the long list of other recessionary indicators, also flashing warning signs.
As discussed in “Conference Board Scraps Its Recession Call,” the Leading Economic Index (LEI) has a long history of accurately predicting recession outcomes. As we showed, each previous decline in the 6-month rate of change in the LEI from the Conference Board has aligned with a recession. We are currently in one of the most extended periods on record
7-30-24 Why Market Comparisons Can Hinder Your Portfolio’s Performance
2024-07-30
Earnings season continues with 39% of S&P reporting this week; by week’s end, 79% of companies will have shared results…and the buy back window opens anew. The Fed meeting begins today, with a slim chance for a surprise rate cut; a more dovish tone will encourage markets, however, and anticipate rate cut by September. Commentary on markets’ 3% correction & Japanese Yen carry trade effects. Addressing the correct response to correction: Average returns are not the norm; risk on/off behaviors. Anchoring life events: What’s the best anchoring for portfolios? Lance and Jon discuss a common mistake investors make when evaluating their portfolio performance, and explains why comparing your returns to the overall market is not always the best approach: The worst thing investors do is compare
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