Predicting Tech Stock Movements: A Cautionary Tale

2025-01-14

PPI & CPI Preview: Earnings season is about to commence, followed by the opening of the Buy Back window. Higher yields (and term premiums) are weighing on markets. Term premiums are just a measure of sentiment; watch what companies say, impacted by higher yields. Markets rally to just above the 100-DMA. Lance reviews investor sentiment, credit spreads, and market valuation (which charts). Noting the (limited) impact of taffis on a service-oriented economy. Being “tactically bearish” does NOT mean we are expecting a bear market or a severe market crash. Regarding portfolio management, the difference between being “tactically bullish” or “tactically bearish” is the level of equity risk we take in client portfolios. Over the last two years, we have been “tactically bullish” and have held

2025-01-10

Richard and Jonathan discuss the narratives that are driving the markets, and the fear factor for bond investors. Is the response to tariff threats an over-reaction? How to deal with emotions in investing. Menwhile, job satisfaction is highest among the 60+ crowd: The group has been working longer, and understands the value of socialization; retirement planning shold include qualitative elements. A look at Gen-z Worth Ethic. The Social Security Fairness Act is now the law of the land, signed on Sunday by President Biden. It promises to erase rules that penalized some retirees by eliminating two federal policies that barred employees with a public pension from collecting their full benefits under the federal retirement program and that reduced benefits for those workers’ surviving spouses

2024-11-08

Why do COLA adjustments lack impact, and what are the Social Security COLA issues that affect you most? Richard Rosso & Danny Ratliff look at cost of living adjustment problems, the incredible Inflation and COLA disconnect, why understanding COLA and inflation is vital.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Why Is Gold Surging?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-is-gold-surging/
"Election Day! Plan For Volatility"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/election-day-plan-for-volatility/
"The Presidential Election Cometh"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
"Corporate Buybacks: A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing"

2024-11-05

Will the 2025 Election be The Most Important Election Ever? Yes…until 2028. Vote for the policy, not the personality: Child Care Credits case study. Markest are hangin’ on ahead of the election, setting up for a post-election rally.Bond yields are the result of pre-election positioning; bond auction is next week. It’s hard to buy when it’s unpopular. Why are Small Caps having a hard time: They’re not growing earnings. Most sensitive to difficult economy. Understand what gives stocks long term growth; will economic growth slow to "normal" next year? Don’t expect 20% grwoth in 2025. Markets’ historical post-election performance & government stimulus; why you have about six years remaining to make as much money as your can before the end of the current, bullish market cycle. Ignore

2024-11-05

With Election Day finally here, markets are bracing for potential volatility. History shows that the stock market can react unpredictably to election outcomes, especially when the results are unclear or contested. In past elections, sudden policy shifts, political uncertainty, or contentious outcomes caused heightened volatility—making it essential to prepare your portfolio now to weather whatever the day brings.

The S&P 500 has averaged a 7% gain during U.S. presidential election years since 1952. While a 7% gain is far from disastrous, it is also well short of the 22% gain this year. Of course, investors need to remember that past performance does not guarantee future returns, and there have only been 18 presidential elections since 1952.

Notably, this is the best election-year

2024-09-13

The August jobs report highlighted a critical reality: the labor market is cooling off. While the headline figures seemed decent, the underlying data reveals clear warning signs that worker demand is slowing. Investors should pay attention because the link between employment and its impact on the economy and the market is undeniable. While often overlooked, as we will discuss, there is an undeniable link between economic activity and corporate earnings. Employment is the driver of a consumption-based economy. Consumers must produce first before consuming, so employment is critical to corporate earnings and market valuations. We will discuss these in order.

Slowing Labor Market: The First Red Flag

The August jobs report indicated that job creation has slowed dramatically,

2024-09-12

📊 Economic data can fluctuate monthly. Focus on trends for a clearer picture! 💼💡 #EconomicTrends #InflationInsights #StayInformed

Learn more:
Subscribe to our YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow
Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/24d87e

2024-09-09

Markets are having a rough start for September; Will the be a correction before the election? Lance examines the buyer/seller dynamic. Markets will probably bound this week. Look for a moderate rally, which will provide opportunity to trim portfolio risk. September/October stock market volatility is expected, with markets de-risking going into the election. Will there be an economic slowdown in September? Lance answers a question from YouTube chat," Who receives the difference in profits/losses when a company sells stock? Why stock buybacks are a scam; a dividend is a return of value to stock holder, while a buyback is a share redemption. The next, great undoing of the markets has not yet been thought of. The Friday Jobs Report: Not to hot, not too cold, but definitely not just right.