Quick Market Rotations: Favorable Shifts Happen Fast!

2024-12-20

It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and predicts next year’s market returns. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, these forecasts are often wrong and sometimes very wrong. For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for 2022. “There is one thing …

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2024-12-19

Heads-up: We’re on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House’s Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect, and whether the Fed has inflation under control. Is the Fed going to suddenly pivot to a dovish stance in the first half of 2025? The restrictive policuy of the Fed, and short-term investing in

2024-10-23

As promised, a show about that voodoo that we do!
(Actually, it’s not voodoo, and Lance Roberts will explain why and how).
Markets sold off on Tuesday to break even. following six straight weeks of gains; still, markets have no fear of recession. Lance shares his personal strategy for Bonds (using his own money, not clients’) When everyone is hating on Bonds is the time to buy. After the Election, the focus will return to Yields and Interest Rates. Lance next provides a primer on the Technical Analysis tools he uses at RIA Advisors: Why we use it; keeping it simple. the $SPX & Moving Averages; Rules of Thumb: When markets break, that’s an alert to pay attention to; are markets breaking, or is it a dip? Is the break confirmed? Give it time. The Relative Strength Indicator and MACD tools:

2024-08-27

As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.

Note: We wrote this article on Saturday, so all data and analysis is as of Friday’s market close.

For example, three weeks ago, the growth sectors of the market were highly oversold, while the previous lagging defensive sectors were overbought. That was not surprising, as the growth sectors of the market were the most exposed to the “Yen Carry Trade. “

We saw much the same in the Risk Range Analysis (Note: both sets of analysis presented are published weekly in the Bull Bear Report).

As explained in the weekly report:

Two critical points. First, three weeks ago, many sectors and

2024-08-20

The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.

However, the picture becomes more nuanced as we examine the technical levels and broader market conditions. While the recent bounce suggests the market decline may be over, risks remain—particularly with the November election looming. Let’s dive into the details.

The August Decline: What Caused It?

August has historically been volatile for markets; this year was no exception. A combination of factors drove the S&P 500’s 8.5% drop: