Invest Smart: Understanding Yield Curve Normalization and Current Market Trends

2024-09-04

Part One of this article described the burgeoning bull steepening yield curve environment and what it implies about economic growth and Fed policy. It also discussed the three other predominant types of yield curve shifts and what they suggest for the economy and Fed policy.

Persistent yield curve shifts tend to correlate with different stock performances. With the odds growing that a long bull steepening may be upon us, it’s incumbent upon us to quantify how various stock indices, sectors, and factors have done during similar yield curve movements.

Limiting Losses With Yield Curve Analysis

Stocks spend a lot more time trending upward than downward. However, in those relatively brief periods where longer-term bearish trends endure, investors are advised to take steps to reduce

2024-09-03

Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.

2024-08-30

Unpacking Kamalanomics and economic cycles in America. Check out my article for more insights. #EconomicGrowthMyth #Kamalanomics

Learn more:
Subscribe to our YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow
Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/13b832

2024-08-23

Joy, Gratitude, and the difficulty of knowing what narrative to believe. Still to come: Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, and reaction to negative revision to Jobs numbers. Four rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year? How to make volatility work for you. Taxation of unrealized gains: It’s a dumb idea. What about credits for losses?? (You absorb the losses, the Gov’t takes the gains.) Thank goodness for Congressional gridlock. Schwab study, "What is Wealthy?" $2.5-mil average. The danger in benchmarking against surveys, S&P, and others’ portfolios. Inflation vs deflation: The chatroom explodes. Preparing for Recession, even when there isn’t one. Yet. The financial security cushion; Schiller’s CAPE calculation: How will this affect you in distribution mode? Debt-to-Income

2024-06-20

Are global fears of the dollar’s decline justified? Let’s reveal the truth about dollarization misconceptions.
– Debunking the myth of a weakening dollar
– Analyzing the dollar’s strength in currency markets

2024-06-18

Lance Roberts dives into the complexities of investing in markets and managing risk. Learn essential strategies to improve your investing outcomes.

– Balancing debts, deficits, and investment fears

– The challenge and necessity of investing despite risks

– Importance of proper allocation and risk management

– Taking profits and reducing risk when markets are overbought

– Psychological behaviors that lead to bad investment outcomes

2024-04-02

Markets delivered a post-April Fool’s drop, while manufacturing metrics moved back into the expansion zone. Markets have now dropped the chances of a June interest rate cut to 50%; markets continue to trade in a particular range. The April 15 Tax Day bump may not materialize this year with the expiration of previous tax law. Gold is on a catch-up trade; will rotation trades continue? Investor sentiment remains high. The bullishness of Ken Fisher; Gains vs Declines: Market Math explained. The Truth about promised returns vs reality; market math & investor longevity. Markets always revert. No reason not to be bullish now; who expects to be richer in 2024? Gen-Z women are most optimistic. US College Majors with highest un-employment rates: Art History.

3:10 – Markets Drop Chances of Fed

2024-03-27

The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets’ steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance’s unique inflation indicator… Markets still act like there’s a flood of liquidity when there’s not; markets are bifurcated; Houston real estate is insane. Can Wall Street save your retirement? Larry Fink thinks so, or at least wants you to think he can; Blackrock & Merrill want to hold your money forever. Creation of Merrill’s Target Date Fund. Why Annuities are so lucrative; three reasons why