How Global Money Supply Boosts Asset Prices Explained

2024-10-02

On September 18, 2024, the headlines read the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points. At first blush, one would think that a trader with a crystal ball a couple of days before the Fed action would buy bonds and lick their chops over the money they would soon make. In this case, the crystal ball was a curse.

Bond yields rose following the rate cut despite what many investment professionals perceive to be a bullish event. If you scour the media, you will find rationales for the sell-off. Such includes the Fed stoking inflation or China’s massive stimulus package. In our opinion, it’s much more straightforward; it all comes down to context.

We were inspired to write this by a message asking us in disbelief if we had ever seen such an adverse bond market reaction to a rate cut.

2024-09-24

Oil prices conitnue to weaken in the face of optimism from analysts now forecasting an 18% gain in earnings in 2025. One of them is wrong. Lance and Jonathan discuss market clarity, Fed rate cuts, and the impact on the markets. Markets trade on the effective Fed rates; what’s the sweet spot among market sectors when rates are coming down? Lance reviews Gold behaviors during rate cutting cycles; big surges in Gold lead to longer-term bases. Why the Math of Loss matters; corrections are really no big deal. The wisdom of managing portfolio risk along the way; don’t let the fear of taxes cost you money. Would Mrs. Roberts do a podcast? Unicorns, Sasquatch, Big Foot, & Flat-earther’s: Putting money in S&P funds for 40-years; time is on your side when you’re young. A discussion of Recession

2024-09-23

Market data showing divergence between economic, sales, and earnings surprises. Earnings high, sales and economic data declining. How long can this last? 📊 #MarketInsights

Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/c58161

YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

2024-09-17

Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, to be concluded with the latest interest rate announcement. Markets’ expectations are for a half-percent cut; could a quarter-percent cut create disappointment on Wall Street? Microsoft announces and increase in its dividend payment (very different from a stock buy back). Kamala Harris’ plans to raise taxes on corporations is in fact an crease in taxes on consumers; corporations are tax collectors for the government. Markets’ rally in anticipation of Fed day tomorrow. The stock buyback window begins to close today ahead of the next earnings season, removing some of the lift to markets. Lance and Jonathan discuss the pro’s an con’s of momentum investing (with charts); answers to chatroom and email questions on purchasing ETF’s and Treasuries, and

2024-07-24

Retirees must adjust their budgets and spending to compensate for inflationary forces. #FinancialPlanning #Budgeting
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2024-07-21

Increasing inflation baseline from 2.5 to 3? Ready to adapt as the world changes. #EconomicInsights #Adaptability
Want to learn more? Subscribe to our YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow