6-29-24 Candid Coffee – Live Chat Episode

2024-06-13

June is half-over, and the stock buy back blackout begins today, removing that source of activity from the market. Economic data points continue to weaken, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell wants to see "more good data." There is an alternative universe of debt; the Fed wants weaker economy so they can lower rates. The S&P 500 sets another new, all-time high; Apple, Miscrosoft, & Nvidia are driving the market. There is an ever-widening performance gap between the S&P 500 and everyone else. Mrs. Roberts’ Roomba and an FOMC Meeting recap; the economy is "normalizing." Jerome Powell’s humility; interest rates are restrictive; the problem with being data-dependent. Elon Musk’s pay package; markets are still being driven by fewer and fewer stocks; buy backs’ influence on market performance; was

2024-06-12

It’s Fed Day and Inflation Day: The FOMC meeting commences, and inflation in May cooled a bit. What will the Fed’s Dot Plot show? Rate cut expectations are down to just two for this year, and likely not occuring until after the election. How will the Fed loosen QT? Markets set another all time high, marginally. The rally-restest-rally pattern continues. Apple was the big driver on Tuesday with the heralding of "Apple Intelligence." We answer viewers’ questions about owning Bonds vs.Treasuries vs ETF’s. The saga of predictions, swimming in oil, and uranium’s leap ahead of its reality. Our investing strategy now: What we’re buying and selling, and why; how we manage risk.

3:18 – Fed Day/Inflation Day; Apple Intelligence
14:50 – Outlook for Owning Bonds
30:23 – Swimming in Oil & The Saga

2024-06-11

More than a few individuals were active in the markets in 1999-2000, but many participants today were not. Back then, the S&P 500, particularly the Nasdaq, rallied harder each day than the last. Market breadth looked pretty weak, as the big names were soaring, forcing indexers and ETFs to buy them to keep their weightings. The reinforcing positive feedback cycle fueled markets higher day after day. We are now witnessing investors chase anything related to “artificial Intelligence.” Just as the internet had companies adding a “dot.com” address to their corporate name in 1999, today, we are seeing an increasing number of companies announce an “AI” strategy in their corporate outlooks.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO , w Senior Financial Advisor,

2024-06-10

Unemployment rate hits 4%, trend above 12-month average since start of year. Could this signal a recession? 📈 #economy #unemployment #recession

Lance Roberts discusses the significance of the recent unemployment rate trends. Tune in to understand why this could be a crucial economic indicator.
– Explanation of the current unemployment rate trends
– Comparison with the twelve-month average
– Historical context of above-average unemployment rates
– Correlation with recessions
– Clarification on the current state of the economy

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2024-04-03

The JOLTS survey rate continues to slow, coincident with a slowing economy; interestingly, retail hiring has dropped sharply, despite increased retail demand (another example of divergent indicators). The data might not be as strong as we think. The difference between Fed promises and predictions can be vast. Markets remain in a "perfect" trend channel; what happens when the 20-DMA is broken? Commentary on the coming solar eclipse, and markets’ historic behavior following. What matters is what happens in the 12-months after such an event. Correction is coming. Answering emails: Stocks vs Bonds in current environment; managing risk is key. What happens to those in all-cash positions when rates fall? Gold & Silver may be doing very well, but are detached from current market reality; they

2024-03-28

If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance. At times, like today, financial and borrowing conditions can be at odds with each other, which makes the Fed’s job of managing monetary policy more difficult. Threading the eye of this needle may prove problematic given that inflation remains too high and, more recently, is showing some signs of being sticky.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Robert, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer

2024-01-25

(1/25/24) The first estimate of Fourth Quarter GDP is released today: It’s only a guess, but expected to be slightly above 2%, which would be the slowest rate of growth since 2023, and coming off Q3 growth of 4.9% (NOTE: The actual number, released after this show aired, is 3.3%, still a significant slowdown from the previous quarter). The connection between GDP growth and earnings; valuations matter. The markets’ rally continues; is correction coming? The Fed changes stance: will there be regrets? The Fed’s #1 Goal is financial stability. The Fed is great at lighting fires, but not so good at putting them out. Is the Fed prepping for crisis? Fahrenheit 451 and The New Truth: cursive writing & The Constitution. Is 3% inflation the camel’s nose under the tent? What inflation really means,

2024-01-08

(1/8/24) What is up with airplane parts falling off in flight? Meanwhile, the first private sector lunar lander is launched in decades: The beauty behind "Hidden Figures" movie; looks like the January Trifecta could be short-lived; working off December’s excesses. How deep will the pullback be? Congress’ is enmeshed with another continuing resolution battle instead of mandated budgeting; that’s how D.C. does business now. The conundrum of capital allocations in 2024: Wall St. doubles-down on bonds; will the Magnificent-7 lead again, or will last year’s underperformers? What if interest rates come down but inflation stabilizes at 3%? no push for the Fed to act (not what’s expected). What about the "in-between outcome?" Audacy bankruptcy and how best to spend ad dollars; broadcast vs