6-26-24 The Irony in Consumer Confidence

2024-05-07

Economists’ ‘rush-to-judgement’ vs the lag effect catching up w economic data. Consumer spending and loan demand are waning as excesses in money supply are normalizing. The data re beginning to refute the "no recession" theme. Market correction is now over, bullish trend to resume. The challenge of NOT expecting recession; what the data is starting to show; not a lot of risk in credit markets…yet. That’s where trouble will show up first. Geopolitical conflicts do mot matter to markets for long; world wars do. Spreads between corporate bonds vs treasuries are at an all time low (90bp). There’s no stress in the economy…so far; pay attention to credit risk. 20th Anniversary of 2008 Financial Crisis is approaching. Letters from the IRS and a $34-B tax bill; the rich need to pay their

2024-05-01

Having cash on hand allows for seizing great opportunities. Wise investing involves careful consideration, not reckless decisions. #financialwisdom

In this video, Lance Roberts delves into the strategic value of maintaining a cash reserve. Discover why holding cash can be a critical element in savvy investing practices.

– Understand the importance of having liquidity in your investment strategy.
– Learn how cash reserves give you the flexibility to act on unexpected opportunities.
– Find out why thorough analysis and patience are crucial before investing.
– Hear why impulsively investing can be detrimental to your financial health.
– Get professional insights on managing your capital wisely in a fluctuating market.

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:

2024-04-30

Over the last two weeks, the bullish sentiment index has reversed from extreme greed to fear. While the index can indeed fall further, what is notable is the sharp reversal of market “exuberance” in such a short span. It would be unsurprising if the market failed this initial resistance test and ultimately retested the 100-DMA soon. Such a pullback would solidify that support and complete the reversal of the bullish sentiment index.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jon Penn, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Bullish Sentiment Index Reverses With Buybacks Resuming"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-sentiment-index-reverses-with-buybacks-resuming/
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2024-04-22

Despite reports of strong sales, when adjusted for inflation, the numbers reveal a different story – highlighting potential concerns for employment and small businesses. #RetailSales #EconomicIndicators

Take a closer look at what the sales figures really mean with Lance Roberts. Discover why, despite appearances, inflation-adjusted sales are not as robust as you might think.
– Exploring the discrepancy between reported sales figures and their inflation-adjusted reality
– Examining the correlation between weak inflation-adjusted sales and retail performance
– Understanding the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)’s concerns regarding small business sales
– Delving into the implications of poor sales on employment growth
– Unveiling the economic indicators that are

2024-04-10

Having risen by about 40% since last October, Gold is on a moonshot. Many investment professionals consider gold prices to be a macro barometer, measuring the level of anxiety in the economy, inflation, currency, and geopolitics.

2024-02-29

Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it’s only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies’ ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets’ ability to perform. Lance & Michael discuss volatility in portfolio performance within complacent markets (volatility is negatively correlated with markets.) Indicators are never perfect; avoid basing portfolio on just indicators. Examining the pace of stock buybacks: Are they really of value? Why pay a premium? Buybacks increase share price, not value. Apple vs Tesla: There has been no real innovation from Apple

2024-02-06

(2/6/24) Market Behavior in a Presidential Cycle: Markets are positioning for a GOP win in November; Jerome Powell is now more inclined to NOT cut rates any time soon. Markets now need a narrative to support their current thesis, but it’s only fundamentals that really matter. The Apple Vision goggle phenom. Markets sell-off, but knocking on the door of 5,000 in the S&P 500: now dealing with gravitational pull. Yields are reversing. NYC giving freebies to immigrants a la MMT: the flaws in that theory. Non-productive debt creates weaker economic growth. ISM Services index edge up into expansion; the quest to S&P 5000; Eli Lilly performance; why we own the stocks we own: We have to make money for our clients, and that’s where the action is. How long can the Magnificent-7 continue to rise?

2024-02-01

(2/1/24) Amelia Earhart was lost 83-years ago, and her missing plane may have been located in the Pacific Ocean, solving the mystery of her disappearance. The mystery of how the Fed operates, however, remains an enigma. And in 2024, there political implications the Fed must also consider (could Kennedy "Perot" the election?) Markets sold off after Jerome Powell promised no rate cuts anytime soon, but bonds had a good day as Treasury shifted stance in favor of longer-termed bonds. Elon Musk could move to Texas from Delaware just in time for Texas to secede. The markets’ response to Jerome Powell’s promise of no rate relief anytime soon; could Apple, Amazon, & Meta reports and subsequent performance could alter the dynamics of the Magnificent-7 to the Super-6 or Fab-5? What about the other