6-10-24 Rising Unemployment Rate: A Possible Recession Indicator?

2024-05-01

Fed Day brings dovish expectations; so far, so good in current earnings season. Economic data is all over the board; Europe emerges from Recession. Taxes to increase; tax flight is inevitable. Market correction continues; can it hold support at 100-DMA? A 10% correction would be normal. Earnings recap (so far) Amazon, CVS/Healthcare: Baby Boomers’ elective surgeries are impacting insurors’ actuarial tables; the rash of retirees. AMD disappoints because their report was on-target, not better-than-expected. Overall, a mixed-bag of results. What happens when companies miss? META: Is the ‘Metaverse’ fading? Lance’s Bitcoin commentary. Fed meeting preview: Inflation proving stickier than expected. Will the Fed hike rates? Ho the Fed communicates to markets: Different speakers’ different takes

2024-04-30

Market update: Corporations are returning to buy equities after a $367 billion drop in share buybacks led to a 5.5% market correction. CEO confidence is improving, leading to increased buybacks. Google recently announced a $70 billion buyback. #investing #marketupdate

In this insightful piece, host Lance Roberts discusses the recent trends in the equity markets and the expected rebound. Dive into the dynamics of corporate buybacks and CEO confidence influencing market movements.
– Explanation of the recent 5.5% market correction
– Discussion on the role of corporations returning to the equity market
– Analysis of the impact of improving earnings on equity buying
– Insight into how CEO confidence correlates with financial strategies
– Exploration of trends in net buybacks based on

2024-04-22

After six days of market declines, is the Correction done? Election risk scenarios & market volatility; markets do not like uncertainty. PCE preview (the inflation gauge the Fed pays attention to). Markets break the 50-DMA, and are now sitting on the 100-DMA. The unsurprising uptick in inflation and the impact of higher raates; why commodities matter. Higher for longer, for not much longer: Rates must come down; NFIB preview. Hey, what happened to all the Ukraine aid US taxpayers propvided? Inflation is a function of supply & demand; where is the higher demand going to come from? Looking ahead to this week’s PCE number, expecting the markets to bounce: Sell into the rally.

3:14 – Is the Correction Done?
14:35 – The Unsurprising Uptick in Inflation
30:18 – Higher for Longer, not much

2024-04-11

Having risen by about 40% since last October, Gold is on a moonshot. Many investment professionals consider gold prices to be a macro barometer, measuring the level of anxiety in the economy, inflation, currency, and geopolitics. So what is and isn’t driving the price of gold higher?

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Is Gold Warning Us Or Running With The Markets?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-gold-warning-us-or-running-with-the-markets/
"Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/margin-debt-surges-as-bulls-leverage-bets/
"Inflation Scare Or Much Ado About Nothing?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The

2024-02-22

Has Nvidia become the world’s most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets’ expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets…yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of rate cuts to come. An unexpected risk: Effects of balance sheet run-off as Fed adjusts QT to manage liquidity. The unstoppable market: What is happening to Fed’s repo program; the Fed Liquidity Index. Have we returned to a bubble in Magnificent Seven stocks (and are they worthy of current valuations)? The hard part about managing portfolios: How does

2024-01-31

(1/31/24) Earnings season continues, with AMD, Google, Microsoft, and NVDIA expected to fall after turning in their reports: Earnings have been okay, but not as good as expected. After "good" reports, watch for increased volatility and rotation from the NASDAQ into the Dow. Bond prices are on the rise, yields are dropping, as Treasury announces a smaller than expected debt issuance. There’s a Trojan Horse in the proposed Childcare Tax Credit bill: a huge disincentive to work; the ugly truth about falling rates of inflation: Prices do not go back down. CPI-W vs CPI-E and how COLA is calculated. Danny’s home rehab update. "You Earned It, You Keep It" Act: what if could mean for retirees. SS Tax Repeal explainer; the evolution of SS, and repeal of SS earnings tax. Let’s fix the climate by

2024-01-17

(1/17/24) The Big Thaw episode: Back from the deep freeze!
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Are in Limbo Working Through Correction," is here:
&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Spot ETF’s for Bitcoin Launch Today"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"2024 Market & Economic Outlook According To Twitter"

2024-01-02

(1/2/24) 2023 Market Returns & News Review: S&P up 24% for 2023. Important to recognize the macro narrative is not always as dire as it appears. Will last year’s market exuberance carry thru? Market returns for 2024 start at zero; the Santa Claus Rally continues; wait a bit for investing opportunity. Looking at Liquidity: What is needed for market corrections? Something no one expects. If you’re thinking about it, the market has already priced it in. It will be something to which markets cannot quickly adapt. Fireworks and dogs, January historical performance; three reasons for investor shortfalls; Investor resolutions for the new year. Reviewing Market Performance for 2023: It’s okay to pay taxes; means you made money. Three Rules for Investors: Homework, homework, homework.

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