6-12-24 Managing Risk and Return with Individual Treasury Bonds

2024-05-07

From 100% expectations of a recession to now nobody expecting one. Will this mindset shift set the economy up for a recession? #economy #recession

Lance Roberts delves into the current economic climate and the likelihood of facing a recession. Discover why the unexpected may be just around the corner despite widespread confidence in the economy.

– Examining the economic predictions made back in 2022
– Understanding why no one anticipates a recession in the current year
– Exploring the pattern of expectations vs. reality in economic trends
– Discussing the necessity of a "shock effect" for economic changes
– Analyzing the potential setup for an unanticipated recession

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:

2024-05-02

Market volatility returns amid earnings season, with McDonald’s, KFC, and Starbuck’s reporting weak earnings, suggesting tru impact of inflation on consumers, wjho are becoming more price-conscious. Markets perform a pump & dump on Wedesnday, with stock retesting the 20-DMA…and failing. Pelaton earnings disappoint; the Fed holds rates steady; everything is fine, but they’re not cutting rates. Discussion of what this means for markets, liquidity, and reduction of Fed balance sheet. The Treasury’s Bond Strategy. Peloton Drama: CEO Exit; what the Fed said; markets have already priced-in the plan. The Fed sees the economy is gradually slwoing, and wants to get ahead of recession. Underlying data is weaker than headline numbers. Powell says, "no stag, no flation." Apple earnings preview,

2024-04-24

Is the Tech Stock pullback healthy? What’s the difference in Bond ratings? Who is really being affected by a tripling of interest rates? These and other pressing financial and investing questions were fielded on our most recent Candid Coffee.
This was an "open-mic" edition of Candid Coffee, with all questions coming from registered participants; the questions’ time codes are noted below.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer

0:00 – Intro & Market recap:
3:30 – Tech stocks’ pull back is healthy; geopolitical risks;
8:05 – The difference between bond ratings
12:47 – Pension Fund investments in REITS w high default risk
19:19 – Are Roth distributions

2024-04-23

Market Commentary: Are there more declines to come? What is the path forward for 5% Bonds? PCE and more earnings reports coming; How to crossover from accumulation to de-cumulation; topic teases: Keeping more of your inheritance; how to increase your inheritance. How to manage funds qwith legacy intent in mind. The important of financial planning before retirement; what is the rate of return you need? The importance of budgeting; financial mistakes you should avoid within five years of retirement; dealing with the rule changes. Dealing with and planning for Social Security. What is the income threshold for converting from pre-tax to Roth IRA?

3:13 – Market Commentary: Are the more declines to come?
14:30 – How to Manage Funds with Legacy Intent in Mind
30:20 – Five Financial Mistakes

2024-04-19

Markets respond to Israel attack on Iran; Procter & Gamble disappoints; markets are in a churning phase. Fed rate decisions & market behaviors. How much do you really need to survive in retirement (What’s your number?) Managing expectations, spending habits, and dependency on Social Securituy; the scinece & art of financial planning; retirement realities. The intimate process of deliverying financial plans; Candid Coffee preview. The three phases of retirement: Go-go, Slow-go, & No-go. Real Investment "’Shrooms." Tax Foundation survey: Do you pay your fair share of federal taxes?

3:12 – Markets’ Respond to Middle East Tensions
14:31 – How Much Do You Really Need to Retire?
30:24 – Delivering Financial Plans & Real Investment Shrooms
44:31 – Do You Pay Your Fair Share?

Hosted by RIA

2024-02-28

Markets continue to trade sideways as the latest earnings season draws to a close. Stock buy-backs will continue for the next three weeks, and then halt in preparation for the NEXT round of earnings reporting. Warren Buffett on buy-backs: Need to occur when companies are under-valued relative to markets for optimal effect; companies are now buying back at high prices. Company stocks are still trading despite 40% reporting negative earnings. What happens when men get sick; Lance answers an email about struggles with higher expenses, despite zero debt; Lance & Danny discuss families’ cost-cutting strategies. Wendy’s experiments with surge pricing; investing wisdom from Warrenn Buffett: What’s he going to do with all that cash? The temptation for "catching-up" in portfolios, and the lure of

2024-02-26

Retail investors have started chasing small-cap stocks in hopes of both a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and avoiding a recession. Such would seem logical given that, historically, small capitalization companies tend to perform best during the early stages of an economic recovery. Since debt-driven government spending programs have a dismal history of providing the promised economic growth, disappointment over the next year is almost guaranteed.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Small Cap Stocks May Be At Risk According To NFIB Data:"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/small-cap-stocks-may-be-at-risk-according-to-nfib-data/
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The latest

2024-02-20

There are "Dow Days" and "NSDQ Days;" CPI inflation is still transitory; emerging influence of presidential election on Congress’ ability to manage debt & spending, M-2 as % of GDP. There is little expectation for earnings growth this year. Markets remain in bullish trend, but a negative day today could trigger MCD Sell-signal. Time to reduce portfolio risk and wait until correction to put capital back to work. Instead of fearing market exuberance, understanding what drives it can provide you with insight and opportunity. look at Employment data and the frustration of college grads unable to find jobs. The Immigration connection to it all: Why we need (merit-based) immigration: Demography is destiny.

2:28 – Dow Days vs NSDQ Days: Correction Coming
13:43 – Understanding ll-time Highs