by Lance Roberts
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| The S&P 500 just surged 8.2% off its March lows—reclaiming key technical levels and sitting within striking distance of all-time highs. But is this the start of a sustained move higher, or just a reflexive rally before another pullback? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down what drove the rally—from extreme bearish sentiment and a volatility reset, to easing geopolitical tensions—and why those factors matter for investors right now. We also examine the critical technical signals, including the reclaiming of the 200-day moving average, and what history suggests about forward returns after similar setups. Key topics include: 0:00 - INTRO 1:08 - Is the Correction Over? 4:50 - When Markets Are Correcting... 8:39 - Earnings Season Commences 10:12 - Now is the Time to Rebalance Risk 16:37 - Lance's U.K. Vacation 21:09 - Big Rally Last Week - What Happens Next - Factors to Watch 26:43 - Bull Case vs Bear Case 30:00 - Lance's Investor Guidelines 33:09 - Markets Feel Worse Than They Are 36:08 - The Southpark Market 40:09 - Why You Should Be Buying the Crash 42:07 - What Everyone Knows... 44:12 - Nothing Stays Static 47:03 - The Hard Part of Investing ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch our previous show, "What To Do After You Inherit Money," https://youtube.com/live/PfgdqYStb70 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Back Above 200-DMA?" is here: https://youtu.be/_JrTG3hB_co ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "S&P 500 Outlook: The 8.2% Rally & What Comes Next." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sp-500-outlook-the-8-2-rally-what-comes-next/ "Oil Shock: Will The Fed Intervene" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/oil-shock-will-the-fed-intervene-part-2/ "The South Park Investment Curse" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/lets-knock-on-wood/ ------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy #FinancialMarkets |
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War headlines spark sharp reactions—oil jumps, stocks dip, the dollar firms—but history shows these moves are usually temporary. Markets price uncertainty fast, then refocus on what truly drives long-term returns: earnings, cash flow, and forward guidance.
The key question isn’t how dramatic the news sounds. It’s whether it permanently changes corporate profitability. Some sectors may benefit short term, others may sell off, but once fear fades, capital flows back to fundamentals.
Volatility is emotional, earnings are structural.
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Catch Lance Roberts daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
SaaS: Is There Opportunity In The Destruction?
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A specter is haunting Wall Street—the specter of the “SaaSpocalypse.” Since the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) peaked on September 19, 2025, it has fallen roughly 30%. For context, the broad technology indexes like XLK and QQQ are essentially flat over the same period, and the semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 30%. Between mid-January …
Nvidia Delivers Perfection But Market Has Concerns
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1-12-26 Investor Lessons From 2025 for 2026
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Markets opened 2026 with early gains, improving breadth, and a rotation toward value—but mixed fundamentals and elevated expectations remain beneath the surface.
Lance Roberts break down the key investor lessons from 2025 that matter most as we head into 2026. We review what worked, what failed, and why market narratives once again misled investors. Topics include value versus growth, volatility versus risk, the role of cash, earnings-driven returns, portfolio rebalancing, and why discipline—not prediction—remains the foundation of long-term investing.
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Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the potential impact of regime change in Venezuela on the energy sector. Today, we extend the analysis and examine other reasons for the invasion. The following theories are based on a Substack commentary from Tracy Shucart, an economist and resources trader. For starters, Tracy makes it clear that oil is not the …
11-20-25 How The Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox
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How does the Federal Reserve actually supply liquidity to the financial system? And why have markets become so dependent on the Fed since 2008?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the complete Fed liquidity toolkit—from QE and QT to the Standing Repo Facility, IORB, ON RRP, OMO, and the Discount Window—and explain why these tools create the “floor and ceiling” of overnight rates.
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Apple Out Google In: Warren Buffett’s Latest Moves
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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has long viewed Apple as its crown jewel. In early 2024, Apple shares accounted for nearly 25% of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. However, Buffett has been selling out of Apple since then, trimming its stake by over 40%. Based on Buffett’s comments, they are reducing their holdings due to concerns about …
11-17-25 Wall Street’s 2026 Earnings Expectations: Real Growth or Just a Dream?
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The market is betting on big earnings growth in 2026, but the economy may not deliver.
In this short video, I break down why strong forecasts clash with weak labor data and what that tension means for the outlook ahead.
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Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
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