by Lance Roberts
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| Are passive investors really passive? Not anymore. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down how index funds and ETFs — the tools designed for patient, long-term investing — have quietly become weapons of short-term speculation. #PassiveInvesting #ETFStrategy #IndexFunds #SectorRotation #JohnBogle |
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Software Or Staples?
2026-02-09
As we wrote in yesterday’s Commentary, efficiently rotating between overbought and oversold sectors, factors, or stocks is a well-established method for outperforming markets. Like any strategy, the hard part is timing, or properly estimating when a pair of sectors, factors, or stocks is about to reverse their respective trends. Currently, there is a massive divergence …
Fannie And Freddie Add Billions To The Bond Market
2025-12-18
According to Bloomberg, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been increasing the mortgages and mortgage-backed securities they hold on their own balance sheets. At their peak, before the financial crisis, Fannie and Freddie held a combined total of $1.6 trillion in mortgages. As we share below, courtesy of Bloomberg, their portfolio sizes are well below …
12-17-25 Earnings Revision Risk Explained
2025-12-17
Markets are priced for perfection heading into next year. Earnings expectations are unusually high. If those forecasts get revised lower, the market will have to reprice quickly.
In this short video, Lance Roberts explains why high valuations and aggressive earnings forecasts create real revision risk if results fail to measure up.
📺Full episode: -vnHx4Eg
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Bull Market Genius Is A Dangerous Thing
2025-12-15
During extended upward-trending markets that reward risk-takers and punish caution, everyone is a “bull market genius.” That dynamic flips investor psychology and, over time, creates a false sense of control. As the market continues to climb, risk appears to vanish, and investors believe that nothing can go wrong, leading them to take on increasing levels …
12-12-25 QE or Not QE? That Is the Question
2025-12-12
The Fed can call it reserve management purchases, but the mechanics are the same: they are adding liquidity, expanding the balance sheet, and supporting financial markets.
In this short video, Michael Lebowitz and I discuss why the terminology matters less than the market impact.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
10-30-25 Microstrategy & Leverage ETFs Trap Explained
2025-10-30
$MSTR turned debt into a massive #Bitcoin bet, becoming a leveraged proxy for $BTC. But leverage cuts both ways—especially for 2x ETFs like $MSTU or $MSTX that suffer from volatility decay, turning sharp drawdowns into long-term underperformance.
In this short video, Vinay Gupta and I discuss how MicroStrategy’s debt-fueled Bitcoin strategy works, why leveraged ETFs on $MSTR are so dangerous, and what investors often miss about volatility decay and compounding losses.
📺Full interview:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
10-27-25 How Greed, Innovation & Leverage Create Every Market Bubble
2025-10-27
Speculative bubbles don’t appear overnight – they evolve through cycles of greed, innovation, and leverage.
In this Short video, I explain how the same cycle of easy money and speculation keeps repeating, just with new assets and fancier language each time.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Leveraged ETFs: Yet Another Sign Of Rampant Speculation
2025-10-22
Not only is the market chasing the most speculative of assets, but it is employing record amounts of leverage to do so. Traditionally, investors use margin loans to gain leverage. More recently, however, leveraged ETFs allow investors to get leverage in one package. To wit, the graph below, courtesy of BofA, shows that there are …
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