8-29-24 Is Nvidia Priced for Perfection?

2024-08-27

As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.

Note: We wrote this article on Saturday, so all data and analysis is as of Friday’s market close.

For example, three weeks ago, the growth sectors of the market were highly oversold, while the previous lagging defensive sectors were overbought. That was not surprising, as the growth sectors of the market were the most exposed to the “Yen Carry Trade. “

We saw much the same in the Risk Range Analysis (Note: both sets of analysis presented are published weekly in the Bull Bear Report).

As explained in the weekly report:

Two critical points. First, three weeks ago, many sectors and

2024-08-24

Managing long term gains is key. Take profits along the way for a more manageable position. Looking ahead for better chances! 📈 #investingtips

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Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/47695e

2024-08-23

The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market. However, as is often the case, the devil is in the details. We uncover a more troubling picture when we peel back the layers of this seemingly positive data. Seasonal adjustments, downward revisions, and rising delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans suggest a more cautious view. The consumer—the backbone of the U.S. economy—may be in more trouble than the headline numbers indicate.

The Mirage of Seasonal Adjustments

The July retail sales report showed a sharp increase of 1.0% month-over-month, surpassing expectations. However, while that number supports the idea of a

2024-08-21

Profitable bond trading opportunities arise when your expectations about Fed policy differ from those of the market. Therefore, with the Fed seemingly embarking on a series of interest rate cuts, it behooves us to appreciate how many interest rate cuts the Fed Funds futures market expects and over what period. Equally important, Fed Funds futures help us assess the market’s economic growth and inflation expectations.

Currently, Fed Funds futures imply the Fed will start cutting rates in September and reduce them by 2.25% to 3.09% in early 2026. From that point, the market expects the Fed to slowly increase Fed Funds to 3.50%. The limited rate cuts and relatively high trough in Fed Funds tell us the market is not pricing in a recession but a normalization of GDP with inflation running

2024-08-13

Market insight 📈 Don’t wait to buy stocks in size. The market could stabilize, offering room for a bounce. Use the rally to reduce risk and rebalance your portfolio. #Stocks #Investing #MarketInsight

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2024-06-03

📈 Momentum vs. value investing. 💰 Know when to ride the wave and when to play the long game. 🕒 #InvestingTips #Finance101 #StockMarket

Lance Roberts dives into the nuances of momentum and value investing, highlighting when each strategy is most effective. Gain insights on how to effectively apply these investment styles to maximize returns.

– The importance of timing in investing
– Differences between momentum and value investing
– Recognizing the right market conditions for each strategy
– Pros and cons of momentum investing
– Benefits and drawbacks of value investing

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757

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2024-03-22

What do the Three Stooges and the Fed’s rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We’re living in a government-driven economy. The challenges to withdrawal rates: Goal-harvesting. Goal shifting when retirement guardrails change. The Reddit IPO: Let the euphoria burn away. Risks to Medicare Advantage plans in 2024: Pre-existing clauses. We now have to deal with reinvestment risks as rates begin to fall; alternatives to getting away from high fixed-income earnings.

3:12 – The Three Rate Cut Stooges
14:23 – Retirement Goal-harvesting
30:16 – Risks in Medicare Advantage 2024
44:33 – Medicare Advantage Risks & Reinvestment Risks as Rates Begin to Drop

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