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| ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: The Fed delivered a far more dovish cut than markets expected. In this short video, Michael Lebowitz and I discuss why Powell’s tone shifted, what he revealed about jobs and inflation, and why this matters for markets now. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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12-4-25 Fed Regime Change: Is Groupthink Finally Ending?
2025-12-04
Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end?
For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair’s view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed.
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down:
0:00 – INTRO
0:19 – ISM Report Shows Abnormality of Markets
4:45 – Markets Prep for Year End Rally
9:33 – 2026 Economic Summit Tease
10:32 – Will Kevin Hassett Be the Next Fed Chairman?
13:25 – Is Fed Groupthink Ending?
16:13 – How a Split Fed Vote Could Affect Markets
18:02 – How About a Pre-2000 Fed?
24:08 – "Reserve Management" is Code for QE0:35 – It’s All About Liquidity
Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending
2025-12-03
Starting in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a profound change to the Fed’s liquidity-providing role in the capital markets was underway. We can sum up the Fed regime change with a popular quip: The Fed has shifted from lender of last resort to the lender of only resort! In our articles QE Is …
12-1-25 A Perfect Year-End Rally Setup But With One Big Warning
2025-12-01
Markets $SPX $NDX followed classic seasonality with a November dip that set up a potential year-end rally. But after six straight monthly gains, the odds of a pullback are rising.
In this short video, I explain why seasonality supports upside, but this streak makes risk management more important than ever.
HSBC Casts Doubt On OpenAI’s Future
2025-12-01
Per the Financial Times (LINK), HSBC has serious doubts about OpenAI’s financial wherewithal. The following bullet points outline HSBC’s assumptions, which highlight the challenging financial path OpenAI faces. The graphic below from the article shows that HSBC expects OpenAI to run a massive operating loss in the year 2030. Accordingly, they have serious concerns about …
10-14-25 Annuities: Good, Bad, & Ugly
2025-10-14
Are annuities the safe retirement solution they’re sold as — or a financial trap in disguise?
Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn unpack the good, the bad, and the ugly sides of annuities.
10:03 – Kitchen Sets & Intramural Flag Football
14:52 – Annuities – Good, Bad, & Ugly
18:08 – What is an Annuity?
20:16 – Different Flavors of Annuities
22:07 – The Ugly Truth About Early Surrender Fees
27:29 – Why Might You Need an Annuity?
31:20 – Three Reasons You’d Need an Annuity
34:36 – Annuities Should Be Planned, not Sold
38:14 – Why Buy an Annuity Instead of Investing in the Market?
41:00 – One More Reason…
43:25 – Are There Inflation-adjusted Annuities?
47:05 – Are Annuities Divorce-proof?
48:59 – Lance’s Marriage Advice
49:52 – Tax Deferral Options
51:59 – More Marriage Advice – His & Her
10-9-25 The Bearish Case For AI Boom: Revenues, Power, & The Cost
2025-10-09
The AI capex boom is real but fragile. It isn’t built on profits, but on promises – circular funding between $NVDA, $ORCL, OpenAI, and others – alongside soaring power costs and looming energy constraints.
In this Short video, @michaellebowitz and I discuss why this self-feeding cycle could expose weak links and lead to costly surprises for investors.
Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
OPEX Overload: How 3 Trillion In Expirations Can Move Markets
2025-08-21
Nearly $3 trillion of notional stock options expire on Friday’s open expiration (OPEX day). Over half of the OPEX volume is in S&P 500 options, with the remainder in single stock options. The graph below provides details on the split between puts and calls, and the strike prices and open interest of the options. Almost …
Inflation Data Sends Markets To New Highs
2025-08-16
🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …
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