9-12-24 Did Inflation Change the Fed’s Outlook?

2024-08-23

The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market. However, as is often the case, the devil is in the details. We uncover a more troubling picture when we peel back the layers of this seemingly positive data. Seasonal adjustments, downward revisions, and rising delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans suggest a more cautious view. The consumer—the backbone of the U.S. economy—may be in more trouble than the headline numbers indicate.

The Mirage of Seasonal Adjustments

The July retail sales report showed a sharp increase of 1.0% month-over-month, surpassing expectations. However, while that number supports the idea of a

2024-08-21

Profitable bond trading opportunities arise when your expectations about Fed policy differ from those of the market. Therefore, with the Fed seemingly embarking on a series of interest rate cuts, it behooves us to appreciate how many interest rate cuts the Fed Funds futures market expects and over what period. Equally important, Fed Funds futures help us assess the market’s economic growth and inflation expectations.

Currently, Fed Funds futures imply the Fed will start cutting rates in September and reduce them by 2.25% to 3.09% in early 2026. From that point, the market expects the Fed to slowly increase Fed Funds to 3.50%. The limited rate cuts and relatively high trough in Fed Funds tell us the market is not pricing in a recession but a normalization of GDP with inflation running

2024-08-13

Market insight 📈 Don’t wait to buy stocks in size. The market could stabilize, offering room for a bounce. Use the rally to reduce risk and rebalance your portfolio. #Stocks #Investing #MarketInsight

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2024-06-05

Ore weak economic data from the Atlanta Fed; semiconductors are outperforming software stocks, 3:1; look for consolidation in that sector. Domestic stocks are outperforming all other markets. A fairly big correction in Oil Prices over the past few days is now setting up an opportunity for investors to take profits and rebalance energy portfolios, which are by necessity tied to the price of their underlying commodity. Curious about Roaring Kitty’s extraordinary journey in the stock market? Discover how his wealth skyrocketed from $53,000 to nearly $300 million; Roaring Kitty’s rise to fame in the financial world; the ups and downs of his public visibility; the SEC’s perspective on Roaring Kitty’s actions; Key financial milestones and achievements; the potential for his wealth to reach $1

2024-06-04

In 2022, we discussed the market’s deviations from long-term growth trends. That discussion centered on Jeremy Grantham’s commentary about market bubbles.

2024-05-20

Focus on being in the top 20% who invest in their wealth, not the bottom 80% just making ends meet. 💰 #wealthbuilding #financialfreedom

In this video, Lance Roberts discusses the importance of striving to be in the top 20% of financial success. Tune in to understand the mindset and habits that set the top achievers apart.

– Why being in the top 20% matters.
– The mindset difference between the top 20% and the bottom 80%.
– The importance of listening to financial talk shows.
– How to recognize and address the struggle to make ends meet.
– Steps to avoid being part of the bottom 80%.

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2024-03-26

Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to buy?" – Sam Stovall. When Technicals & Fundamentals align (the problem for most investors is that they’re too slow). All elements are now present for a reversion to the mean; just need a catalyst. What will turn buyers into sellers? The impact of more, earlier retirees on actuarial tables and Larry