8-22-24 Jackson Hole Preview

2024-08-20

The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.

However, the picture becomes more nuanced as we examine the technical levels and broader market conditions. While the recent bounce suggests the market decline may be over, risks remain—particularly with the November election looming. Let’s dive into the details.

The August Decline: What Caused It?

August has historically been volatile for markets; this year was no exception. A combination of factors drove the S&P 500’s 8.5% drop:

2024-06-25

Fed speakers are out this week, talking the same game. Lance examines corellation between the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and economic growth, and what posts to X (formerly known as Twitter) are to be called. Who does the Fed depend upon for data? There are many divergences in the data; Nvidia’s bad day(s): Stock split and 13% drop is a correction, not a crash. Doing the math to S&P 6,300 and looking at the range of possibilities. We address the common investor’s desire for a perfect low-risk, high-reward investment. Lance & Jon discuss the unrealistic expectations and the growing demand for such ideal investments in today’s market and economy: The search for a magic pill investment; expectations versus reality in market investments; economic uncertainty driving demand for

2024-06-14

Utilize an advisor before retirement to maximize benefits while working. Additional value can be added by exploring all options early on. #financialplanning

Planning for retirement? Get ahead by speaking with an advisor early.
– Importance of contacting an advisor well before retirement
– Leveraging employer benefits while working
– Valuable opportunities that may be overlooked
– Steps to maximize retirement planning
– Additional value an advisor can add

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www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow

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2024-06-11

Timing is key in investing! When people doubt a 60/40 allocation, it’s the perfect time to buy. Economic slowdown = lower rates = higher bond prices! 📈💰 #InvestingTips #EconomicStrategy

Is the classic 60/40 asset allocation strategy dead? Lance Roberts breaks down why now might be the perfect time to consider this investment mix.
– Debunking the myth about the death of 60/40 allocation
– Key economic factors influencing interest rates
– How a slowing economy impacts your investments
– The relationship between bond prices and interest rates
– When to take advantage of falling interest rates for portfolio gains

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757

➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube

2024-06-10

Employment Report Headlines are stronger than the underlying data shows; economic activity is slowing, but markets remain upbeat. Markets have been quiet; complacency can lead to unexpected things. Markets tested 20-DMA and rallied; will re-test that level today…again. FOMC Meeting this week + CPI Inflation data could trigger a change: Markets’ performance has been predicated on Fed rate cuts. How we get the employment numbers: Data vs surveys. The gap between households and BLS is growing; something is wrong with the adjustments. Why $20/hr minimum wage isn’t working. Look at wages vs total compensation. Employment numbers are likely to be revised downward. Analysts’ estimates are unrealistic in the face of economic data. Commodities in Boom-Bust cycles; supply/demand imbalances.

2024-04-08

Eclipse-mania is out of control. Fed speakers confirm they’ll cut rates, but in no rush to do so. Jobs numbers tantalize markets; the impact of immigration on employment. Boomers & Gen-Z plans to splurge on groceries in 2024. Markets takeout the 20-DMA; will the break be confirmed this week? Putting Inflation into proper perspective; the three measures of inflation. The economic basics of Supply & Demand (and their impact on inflation). Your personal inflation is not the same as mine. What markets pay attention to (CPI). How to fix the power grid: Productive vs un-productive debt. Forgiving student loan debt doesn’t make the debt go away; taxpayers will shoulder the burden of the unpaid debt.

3:14 – Solar Eclipse Day; Markets Test 20DMA
15:40 – The Three Measures of Inflation
30:17 –

2024-04-02

Markets delivered a post-April Fool’s drop, while manufacturing metrics moved back into the expansion zone. Markets have now dropped the chances of a June interest rate cut to 50%; markets continue to trade in a particular range. The April 15 Tax Day bump may not materialize this year with the expiration of previous tax law. Gold is on a catch-up trade; will rotation trades continue? Investor sentiment remains high. The bullishness of Ken Fisher; Gains vs Declines: Market Math explained. The Truth about promised returns vs reality; market math & investor longevity. Markets always revert. No reason not to be bullish now; who expects to be richer in 2024? Gen-Z women are most optimistic. US College Majors with highest un-employment rates: Art History.

3:10 – Markets Drop Chances of Fed

2024-03-27

The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets’ steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance’s unique inflation indicator… Markets still act like there’s a flood of liquidity when there’s not; markets are bifurcated; Houston real estate is insane. Can Wall Street save your retirement? Larry Fink thinks so, or at least wants you to think he can; Blackrock & Merrill want to hold your money forever. Creation of Merrill’s Target Date Fund. Why Annuities are so lucrative; three reasons why