9-16-24 Market Risks We Are Watching

2024-08-23

Stocks vs. Bonds: Understanding the difference. Stocks offer potential for higher yield, but bonds provide security with maturity value. 💰📈 #Investing101

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Watch entire show: https://cstu.io/deb5b1

2024-08-13

It’s economic report week, with previews of today’s PPI, tomorrow’s CPI, and Thursday’s Retail sales numbers for July; will weaker consumer spending appear? Stock buybacks have returned. Markets to re-test 100-DMA, and set up to move up to the 20-DMA. Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency. Lance & Jonathan discuss portfolio turnover and tax implications: If you’re paying taxes, you made money! Never buy a stock for its dividend. Lance corrects the YouTube chatroom on companies; longevity; Lance & Jonathan discuss bonds, coupons, discounts, and total costs. Coupons vs Yield: The only aspect of a

2024-08-13

Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency. As we noted previously:

“While there have certainly been more extended periods in the market without a 2% decline, it is essential to remember that low volatility represents a high “complacency” with investors. In other words, the longer the market moves higher without a significant correction, the more confident investors become. They respond by raising their allocations to equities (risk) and reducing their allocations to cash (safety).”

As repeatedly discussed in June and July, a 5-10% correction is normal and occurs almost

2024-08-01

Jerome Powell & Co. hold fast to the current doctrine…Lance and Michael discuss the ramifications for investors now.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Is There Value In Small Cap Value Versus Large Cap Growth?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/interest-rates-are-too-is-there-value-in-small-cap-value-versus-large-cap-growth/
"Bullish Years Often Have Corrections"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullish-years-often-have-corrections/
"Pullback Doesn’t Deter Investor Bullishness"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "NASDAQ Correction: Here’s Our

2024-07-29

📈🔍 Economic and financial stress signals emerging in the bond market. Stay alert for potential surprises ahead! #marketinsights #Fed #economy

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2024-05-15

CPI Preview & PPI review; markets closed higher Tuesday thanks to downward revisions to previous PPI print & Jerome Powell comments. Markets remain overbought, which may limit upside. CPI will be The Market Driver. Signs of a slowing economy: Increased credit card usage. AI is now capable of creating original, royalty-free music for online streaming. What will be the impact? No need for musicians/performing artists? Now AI is experimenting with "NSFW" content; it’s the dark side of tech. How high can Bitcoin go? The problem with cybercurrency is determining its intrinsic value. (The problem with proforma numbers) The Bitcoin proposition is all about supply & demand. What is the next driver? What happens when "Fed Coin" comes? Howe to deal with Bitcoin volatility? Bitcoin regulation to

2024-04-01

PCE Inflation is weaker, yet consumer spending remains robust; the Atlanta Fed is forecasting 2.3% GDP for Q2. Is this period nirvana for the Fed? The Relative Strength Index is stuck at 70. Markets continue a low-volatility advance, seemingly floating higher. The current environment typically leads to market correction. The next round of earnings commences next week; it will be unsurprising that to see a high percentage of companies “beat” Wall Street estimates. (The high beat rate is always the case due to the sharp downward revisions in analysts’ estimates as the reporting period begins.) Are investors paying more for less? California’s new $20.hr minimum wage goes into effect today; cast study to come. The realities of the cost of labor; at what point do consumers say, "enough."

2024-03-25

There are three components of a “market bubble.” The first two, price and valuation, often get dismissed or rationalized during the inflation phase. That rationalization is due to investor psychology and the “Fear Of Missing Out (F.O.M.O.)

Stop the re-makes of ’80’s movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency (Memecoin) is indicative of late-cycle market speculative mood. The Coffee Maker saga continues; Market Bubble Psychology: What defines a market bubble. No two market bubbles are a like (w charts). The Fed’s Dot Plots are worthless. How will the latest CR be funded? (More debt.) The mechanics of Social Security: more retirees earlier than