7-16-24 Fed Rate Cuts – A Signal To Sell Stocks And Buy Bonds?

2024-06-10

Unemployment rate hits 4%, trend above 12-month average since start of year. Could this signal a recession? 📈 #economy #unemployment #recession

Lance Roberts discusses the significance of the recent unemployment rate trends. Tune in to understand why this could be a crucial economic indicator.
– Explanation of the current unemployment rate trends
– Comparison with the twelve-month average
– Historical context of above-average unemployment rates
– Correlation with recessions
– Clarification on the current state of the economy

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2024-06-04

Should you wait until after the Presidential Election to invest? Are you considering market timing as a strategy? Lance Roberts breaks down the pitfalls and risks of trying to predict the market: Challenges of predicting market trends months in advance; Consequences of sitting out of the market until a specific event; the trap of waiting for the perfect moment to invest; How market run-ups can leave you behind; The psychological cycle that keeps investors indecisive. Launching June market trading and looking ahead; the continuing saga of E*Trade, Roaring Kitty, and GameStop. Economic data continues to weaken; expectations for Fed rate cuts this year are now back up to two. Markets’ morning selloff, afternoon rally back into the green pattern continues, thanks to EOD institutional buying;

2024-05-30

Bitcoin mining accounts for almost 2% of electricity generation, not significant for grid expansion, but still considerable. AI data centers offer more economic benefits. #Bitcoin #AI #EnergyConsumption

Join Michael Lebowitz as he digs into the nuances of bitcoin mining and its energy consumption. This short segment critiques the productivity and economic benefits of bitcoin mining.
– Bitcoin mining’s energy consumption and its impact on the power grid
– The debate on the economic benefits of bitcoin mining
– Comparison between bitcoin mining and AI data centers
– Statistical insights on bitcoin mining usage
– Introduction to natural gas in the context of energy consumption

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2024-05-29

Understanding inflation: it’s all about supply and demand. Government’s not just printing money but issuing debt. #economics101 #inflation

In this video, Lance Roberts breaks down the basics of inflation and how supply and demand influence its rise and fall. Understand the common misconceptions about inflation and the truth behind money circulation.

– Explanation of inflation using supply and demand principles.

– Impact of a slowing economy and reduced demand on inflation.

– The misconception about government "printing money."

– Relationship between money supply and population growth.

– Reasons why inflation falls as monetary supply declines.

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:
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2024-05-23

Markets sold off on release of the latest FOMC Meeting minutes, which are a sanitized, finely-crafted version of what went on behind closed doors. The hawkishness seems to be continuing; Deflation seems to be a bigger risk to the economy than inflation. There’s too little demand, resulting in price cuts to move inventory. Insight on why we reduced our stake in Nvidia before its report was released, which attests to the growth potential of AI buildouts. One cloud on the horizon: Wall Street’s ever-optimistic expectations for continued growth. How does innovation impact the economy, and who will be the next Levi Strauss? The problems facing the power grid from AI & EV’s. The power grid needs 40- NYC’s. Natural Gas will be a big winner as a cheap, clean energy source. Water consumption

2024-03-19

There’s a definite correlation between changes in stock buybacks and changes in market performance. With the closure of the stock buyback window by the blackout period, the effects will be interesting, especially with the prevailing attitudes in an over-extended market. We also notice Bitcoin is having an excellent correction. ance and Michael discuss the Fed’s Dot Plot and plans for Quantitative Easing: Which problem is easier to fix: Creating recession or inflation? Bank of Japan is ending it’s policy of negative rates; what will be the effect on the US? What’s the risk to the currency carry trade? Japan’s demographic problem. Is the Fed formulating a new type of QE? What QE does; is it inflationary? What the Fed can do; the stealth form of QE: Will it provide liquidity to markets?

2024-03-19

With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you don’t understand the importance of corporate share buybacks and the blackout periods, here is a snippet of a 2023 article I previously wrote.

2024-03-06

Super Tuesday seems to have locked-up the next Presidential contest pairing; economic data is not so good, yet market exuberance continues. Fed speakers abound today ahead of the Fed’s blackout period. A record-setting Yield Curve Inversion is underway, still without recession. Markets continue to trade in a narrow range, like clockwork; volatility actually declined. Are we at the top, and not a bubble? Correction this year is very likely; Bitcoin joined by Gold as a speculative asset. The proposed government match to 4-01-k’s: Nice idea, but few will be able to take advantage; and what about the unintended consequences? the effect of inflation on the economy. Why cap savings? IF the economy is doing so great, why do we feel so bad about it? The Hunger Games & the Kellogg’s boycott.