Investors hate Risk

2024-11-19

Will 2025 be the year the PRC goes for Taiwan?

Check out Ed D’Agostino’s full conversation with Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book here: -Q0

2024-09-13

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The prevailing narrative around oil is that a global supply glut and weakening demand from China will continue to keep oil prices down.

The reality is that oil isn’t going away anytime soon.

Josh Young, the founder and CIO at energy investment firm Bison Interests takes us on a world tour of oil-producing nations, explaining why there is “a lot less spare capacity than people think.” That includes capacity from Guyana, which some have called “the next Saudi Arabia.” He also believes the China demand story is overstated.

You will also hear about which OPEC nations might be cheating on their quotas, the nuances in the Exxon v. Chevron dispute, the future of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve… and what

2024-08-30

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Decoupling the US economy from China’s is essential to strengthening our long-term economic resiliency and national security. Meanwhile, China is doing the same thing—decoupling its economy from ours. Yet China’s export business is booming.

Gavekal CEO and renowned China expert Louis Gave says that China now exports more to other emerging markets than it does to the US and western Europe. Here’s Louis:

“China’s trade is absolutely booming. The investments that China made 10 years ago in things like the One Belt One Road, the Silk Road Fund, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, all the things that we laughed at and said, ‘Oh, you want to have trade with Kazakhstan? Who cares? Sure, have it. It’s

2024-08-23

That old private equity model is mostly extinct. In its place, former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian sees an $8 trillion bubble, built on massive layers of debt across 17,000 private equity firms.

Jared says this bubble poses a systemic threat to the entire financial system, with the potential to implode in ways similar to what we experienced during the 2008 financial crisis. He also explains the opportunities it presents for investors who get ahead of it.

Jared just released a comprehensive white paper on the private equity bubble—and what he’s calling the “Big Short 2.0.” Access your FREE copy by clicking the link below.

Find Jared Dillian’s free exposé on private equity here:
https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/go/JD059AF031/MEC

Follow Jared Dillian on X (Twitter):

2024-07-26

Something phenomenal happened in 2001. Humanity generated more information in a single year than it had in all of human history, combined, up to that point. Since then, the amount of information available to us has gone parabolic, as documented by former CIA media analyst Martin Gurri in his fascinating book, The Revolt of the Public.

Gurri explains the effects of this information “tsunami,” which underpinned events from the Arab Spring to Javier Milei’s ascendency in Argentina to the abrupt turnaround of China’s Zero-COVID policies.

The information tsunami has led to a breakdown in the public’s trust in institutions and the elites in charge. Many of us have sensed this happening for years now, but I believe Gurri has done the best job of articulating the nuances of this phenomenon.

2024-07-19

Is the US in “Cold War II” with China? Dmitri Alperovitch believes we are, and that it could turn kinetic, starting with China potentially invading Taiwan.

Dmitri is a founder of cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike and the co-author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century. He’s also one of the few analysts who accurately predicted when, why, and how Russia would invade Ukraine. He got it right—and he got it right early.

Dmitri articulates Taiwan’s strategic importance to both China and the US in plain terms. He points to China’s belief in its right to global preeminence, saying that China doesn’t want to be a US peer—it wants to “eclipse” it. When China looks out from its shores, it sees a ring of US naval power constraining it, keeping it

2024-06-28

We are entering a golden age of macro investing says Harris Kupperman, or “Kuppy” as he’s colloquially known.

Kuppy is the founder and CIO of Praetorian Capital, where he publishes an excellent, free investor letter (link below) that I read regularly. In it, he’s written about the “great macro dreamscape,” where the world unravels largely in response to runaway government debt.

While many of Kuppy’s readers took his forecasts in a negative light (and there will be negative fallout, particularly inflation), he is more focused on the opportunities it will create for macro investors.

We dig into those opportunities in detail in this interview, with Kuppy sharing specific areas—including offshore energy—that he likes. We also discuss his success with uranium, and how our tense