| This week I spoke with Dr. Lacy Hunt, executive vice president of Hoisington Asset Management and author of both “A Time to Be Rich'' and “Dynamics of Forecasting: Financial Cycles,Theory and Techniques.” We discussed the consequences of the Federal Reserve’s actions, the impact of higher interest rates, and the durability of inflation. In this edition you’ll hear Lacy and I discuss: - How the Fed’s slow shift from “lender of last resort” to “spender of first resort” could have far-reaching consequences for the economy… - Why the Fed’s greatest policy obligation moving forward should favor modest- and moderate-income households… - What increased housing prices means for the cost of living in other areas of the economy… - Why despite economic resilience there is still “significant risk of a hard landing.” - How soaring interest rates are negatively affecting household savings… - Why the Fed’s long-term credibility may be severely damaged… Dr. Lacy Hunt’s quarterly review and outlook can be found here → https://hoisington.com/economic_overview.html —------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 0:00 - Introduction 1:47 - A brief explanation of what federal interest rates are 2:01 - How federal interest rates work 3:16 - What the fed funds rate actually is 4:09 - The inversion of the yield curve 5:03 - How monetary economics looks at macroeconomics 5:46 - The largest rate hikes since 1994 6:04 - The Fed’s liquidity issue 6:25 - Is the Fed “really” data dependent? 7:03 - The money price-wage spiral 7:52 - Inflation has peaked but is still relatively high… 8:03 - The worst cost-of-living crisis in 42 years 8:39 - The Federal Reserve oversteps its bounds 9:25 - The Fed is behind on its balance sheet 10:02 - What the Fed could and should do to reduce liquidity 10:53 - Why the Fed’s credibility is greatly reduced 11:08 - Leaving the confines of the Federal Reserve Act 12:02 - The increase in cost of living 12:48 - Housing’s unexpected effect on the rest of the economy 13:15 - The highest interest rates in years 13:46 - The soaring cost of living 14:10 - Monetary policy as a leading indicator of economic activity 14:49 - The housing sector and the greater economy 16:03 - The inversion of the yield curve 17:05 - The likelihood of a hard landing 17:42 - The reduction in household savings 19:46 - The increase in credit card debt 20:47 - The Fed versus the ECB 21:24 - The Fed’s priorities? Modest- and moderate-income households 22:45 - The dollar’s outsized strength 23:10 - Debt and growth outside the United States 24:05 - The Fed’s political failure 25:30 - The likelihood of recession 26:40 - The cost and availability of labor 27:49 - Bond investing’s bright outlook 28:20 - Closing thoughts |
You Might Also Like
Invest in the Best, with Keith Fitz-Gerald
2022-11-18
Want a transcript? Sign up for our free weekly e-letter, and you’ll get a transcript every week, plus a summary and link to the video: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM499G/MEC
Markets can move with lightning speed, and black-swan events can wipe out your investments almost overnight. FTX, the crypto exchange that just declared bankruptcy, is only the latest example of this.
This week, I talk with my guest Keith Fitz-Gerald, top analyst, market educator, and a frequent guest on FOX Business News and other preeminent business media, about topics like: today’s most and least trustworthy investments… do you want to be right, or do you want to be profitable?… and how to build a reliable framework for your investing strategy.
Here are some of the things we discuss:
● What
Ex-Wall Street Trader Explains Why Now Is the Time to Fight the Fed
2022-11-03
Want a transcript? Sign up for our free weekly e-letter, and you’ll get a transcript every week, plus a summary and link to the video: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM499G/MEC.
“Don’t fight the Fed” is a mantra every investor knows. But what if the Fed is totally wrong in its assessments? A top contrarian investor and sentiment trader weighs in on what he thinks could be new bull market…
This week I spoke with longtime friend Jared Dillian, former Wall Street trader, financial writer, and proponent of sentiment investing.
In this week’s edition, we discussed:
● Why we could be on the cusp of a new bull market—despite signs to the contrary
● From green to red: What the Fed’s conflicted messaging means for you and your portfolio
● The two catalysts that could drive the S&P to
Is Global Unhappiness Affecting Your Investments? | Global Macro Update
2022-10-07
Want a transcript? Sign up for our free weekly e-letter, and you’ll get a transcript every week, plus a summary and link to the video: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM499L/MEC
This week, I speak with Jon Clifton, CEO of polling company Gallup and author of WSJ best-seller, Blind Spot: The Global Rise of Unhappiness and How Leaders Missed It.
In this edition, you’ll hear:
• Why non-traditional indicators like well-being and happiness can have a critical impact on companies’ performance
• The strange reason why the US ranks higher in happiness now
• How the widening gap between the haves and have-nots threatens a greater cultural rift
• Two emotional factors that increase the risk of dying by up to 50%
• Why global leaders are missing the importance of well-being as a metric
To
How Nuclear Energy Could Save the World | Global Macro Update
2022-09-29
If you like Global Macro Update, sign up for our free weekly e-letter, which gives you a brief summary and the full transcript of the week’s video interview: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM499L/MEC
This week, I spoke with Spencer Abraham, former US secretary of energy under President George W. Bush. Spencer currently serves as chairman of the board at Uranium Energy Corp. He was joined by Amir Adnani, founder and CEO of Uranium Energy Corp.
We discussed America’s dangerous dependence on Russian uranium, the looming energy crisis in Western Europe, modern solutions to provide reliable baseload power to US households, and much more…
In this edition, you’ll hear Amir, Spencer, and me discuss:
● Why public policy is the greatest threat to clean energy for America
● Why 1 in 5
Energy Short and Long Term – Global Macro Update
2022-09-09
This week I spoke with Sam Rines, Managing Director of Corbu Research and author of After Normal: Making Sense of the Global Economy.
We discussed the oil and energy markets and the US economy, inflation, the Fed, and geopolitical tensions…
In this edition, you’ll hear Sam Rines and me discuss:
– Why the long-term outlook for oil and natural gas is very bullish…
– How Qatari LNG could offset a significant amount of Russian energy dependence…
– Why Russia halting natural gas exports to Europe likely won’t have the catastrophic effects the media fears……
– What Fed actions could mean for emerging market economies…
– Why we could feel the ripple effects of COVID for the next 5-10 years…
Samuel Rines’ new book, After Normal: Making Sense of the Global Economy, is available for
The Great Age Reboot – Global Macro Update
2022-09-02
This week, I spoke with Dr. Michael Roizen, Chief Wellness Officer at the Cleveland Clinic, and author of “The Great Age Reboot: Cracking the Longevity Code for a Younger Tomorrow.” We talked about how current science and technology will revolutionize our ability to live longer and live better. We also discussed the economic and policy implications that come with longevity as a disruptor.
In this edition, you’ll hear Dr. Roizen and me discuss:
– Why people living to 100, 120, or even 130 years old will become increasingly common—and how life past 100 may not look like what you expect…
– How induced tissue regeneration could potentially eliminate obesity…
– Two breakthrough anti-aging technologies that have moved from clinical trials into human testing…
– What actions you should
The dangers of decoupling from China…—Global Macro Update
2022-08-19
Today I spoke with Emily de La Bruyère, a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and the founder of Horizon Advisory. We discussed China’s economic role in the global economic ecosystem as well as US/China great power competition.
In this edition you’ll hear Emily and me discuss:
• How relationships between the US and China are deteriorating and why that trend will likely continue…
• Why US regulatory controls will likely prove ineffective in protecting domestic industry from Chinese encroachment…
• How Taiwan’s economic dependence on China poses the greatest threat to its stability and future…
• What the US and Europe ultimately must do in order to successfully decouple from China…
• Why US and European private industry will eventually lose access to Chinese
The Unknown Future of Food Prices – Global Macro Update
2022-07-29
Today I spoke with economist and agriculture expert Dan Basse of AgResource. The discussion was more than I expected—the US and the world are facing serious food security issues.
Tags: Featured
17 pings
Skip to comment form ↓