Economic Boom Coming: 800 Years of Post-Crisis Patterns | David Kotok

Published on February 28, 2025

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John Mauldin
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Are we in for another pandemic? In the US, 10% of commercial egg-laying hens have died in connection with the bird flu in recent weeks. Egg prices have soared, and the USDA expects them to rise 41% this year.

Shares of Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM), the nation’s largest egg producer, are up 59% over the past year.

At this point, the bird flu can travel animal-to-animal. And there have been scores of animal-to-human infections, with at least one human fatality. But the bird flu isn’t jumping human-to-human… yet. Though virologists are starting to warn that the risk of another human pandemic is increasing.

We’re speaking with Cumberland Investors co-founder David Kotok about all this, including the economic and technological effects of pandemics across history. He and the co-authors of his book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks, analyzed 300-plus epidemics, beginning in antiquity, up through the Black Death, and on to the present day.

Learn what they found, and why David is not surprised we’re in a post-pandemic economic boom akin to the roaring ’20s.

Learn more about David’s book The Fed and the Flu here:
https://www.thefedandtheflu.com/

Learn more about David Kotok here:
https://www.cumber.com/team/david-r-kotok

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-kotok/

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Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
04:27 – Tech gambling post-pandemic
06:55 – Roaring ’20s boom
10:23 – The long Covid effect on the labor force
17:50 – The pandemic’s effect on interest rates
21:31 – Government disruption
26:54 – The measles are back
34:20 – Financialization of medical care

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About John Mauldin

Each week, investors and financial professionals around the globe turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. And for good reason. John is a noted financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, a pioneering online commentator, and the publisher of one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance—Thoughts from the Frontline—one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world.

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