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A coming conflict with China? – Global Macro Update

Today, I spoke with Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at Cognitive Investments. We discussed the long-term effects Nancy Pelosi’s visit could have on US-China relations, and much, much more.

In this edition, you’ll hear Jacob and me discuss:

► What Putin really wants, and why the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely far from over…
► Why Nancy Pelosi’s visit is really the 4th Taiwan Strait crisis…
► How restoring normal trade relations with China could significantly lower inflation—and why that’s unlikely to happen…
► Why the dangerous crisis brewing in China’s real estate sector should be on people’s minds…
► How Taiwan is rapidly becoming a “domestic political football” for both Washington and Beijing…

To learn more about Jacob Shapiro, click here:

Did you like this interview? If so, you should learn more about Thoughts from the Frontline from Mauldin Economics—in-depth weekly dispatches to help you understand what's happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence. Click the link to sign up:


00:00 - Introduction
00:36 - What Pelosi’s trip means for US politics
00:57 - The 4th Taiwan Strait crisis
1:48 - China’s likely reaction
2:23 - The meaning of Chinese military drills
3:35 - US foreign policy is adding fuel to the fire
6:36 - Will Pelosi’s actions have long-standing consequences?
7:11 - We’re heading toward a US-China conflict…
7:49 - How China will interpret this
8:08 - In the long run, the deck is stacked against the United States
9:04 - Sooner or later, the US will have to choose its “real” policy
9:24 - What the US reaction to Russia-Ukraine tells us about China-Taiwan
9:48 - Shades of the Korean War
10:33 - Why investors are wrong to get optimistic now
10:54 - Positive indicators in grain exports…
11:32 - Will Russia be able to achieve its strategic goals? Will it push farther?
11:51 - What Russian state media tells us about the conflict
12:34 - The Ukrainian grain magnate killed in a Russian attack…
13:03 - There’s no real off-ramp to a long-drawn-out conflict…
13:27 - With the high energy prices, will the Europeans be able to hold the line?
13:58 - Are the Europeans preparing for the coming winter?
14:24 - Putin has turned Russia into a Chinese gas station
15:01 Europe’s surprisingly positive long-term energy outlook
15:44 - What Putin would demand in a settlement…
16:49 - The two massive stories the media are overlooking
17:11 - The potential global fallout of a real estate price crisis in China…
18:56 - The economic risks of the water level crisis in the US Southwest
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John Mauldin
Each week, investors and financial professionals around the globe turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. And for good reason. John is a noted financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, a pioneering online commentator, and the publisher of one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance—Thoughts from the Frontline—one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world.
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