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Election 2020: what the data tell us


The presidential election has been transformed by data. From key swing states and early voting to voter suppression and possible election-night chaos, Elliott Morris, our data journalist and election guru, discusses his polling predictions and answers your questions about the 2020 race for the White House.

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00:00 – An unprecedented election

00:35 – Why should we trust election predictions?

02:03 – How will the pandemic affect election predictions?

03:04 – Voter turnout in swing states

03:55 – Why we don’t use early voting data in our forecast

05:14 – Mail-in ballot rejection rates

07:38 – How long can we expect to wait for the results?

08:42 – Could the results flip after all mail-in ballots are counted?

09:39 – Will Americans accept the election result?

Further reading:

Find the Economist’s coverage of the US elections here:

Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest US election coverage:

Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here:

Sign up to The Economist’s weekly “Checks and Balance” newsletter to keep up to date with our coverage of American politics:

Read about concerns surrounding voter suppression in America:

Why Amy Coney Barrett’s supreme court nomination is so contentious:

Read about how religious partisanship is influencing American politics:

Read about the foreign and domestic risks that plague America’s 2020 elections:

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The Economist offers authoritative insight and opinion on international news, politics, business, finance, science, technology and the connections between them.
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