Election 2020: what the data tell us

It’s all a big lie.

VOTE!

Trump can win if impossible number of democrats do not vote. They will do that if they have certain "death wish". From early voting, I do not see that such is the case. It is foolish to think that when number of undecideds is as small, as it is this time, they will ALL vote for incumbent. All through the American history, exactly opposite has happened.

These are the facts, that are not understood about American politics, except by few, like Prof. Allan Lichtman.

1. Every presidential election is ONLY decided by independent voters, because they are about 41% of voters.

2. They ONLY decide who to vote for, based on the performance of party that has been in White House in last four years. Allan Lichtman has given 13 criteria on which performance is evaluated. You can add more criteria or reduce some, but that is a fact that performance of party in White House is rigorously evaluated by those, whose vote is actually a deciding factor in the outcome.

3. Loss of carter, George Bush senior happened because their party holding White House failed in 7 or more of those criteria. When Al Gore lost, I had predicted his loss. But, let us say, that was one year, where Lichtman's keys test may have failed, because he predicted Gore to be the winner. My analysis has shown, that if Obama had run a third term, even he would have lost white House. So, Clinton's loss was not surprising. But, I see nothing performance worthy in entire Trump four years. Independents, who actually decide presidential elections, are NOT in love or hate with Trump. They do objective analysis of performance, and Trump fails in that.

Now my final analysis and argument. Four US presidents have been impeached so far. The fourth impeachment happened this year. But, in statistics, having three data pointing to same direction, is called a trend. The trend from impeachments is that party of impeached president ALWAYS loses the White House in the next presidential election. These are the three data points:

1. Andrew Johnson (democrat) was impeached. In the following election, Republican Ulysses S. Grant, won the presidency, and democrats lost the white House after impeachment of president from their party.

2. Same trend held with Nixon. Nixon, Republican was impeached, his party lost the white house in the following election.

3. Same trend held again. Democrat Bill Clinton was impeached, and his party lost the White House in election following his impeachment.

This trend of impeached president’s party losing White House in following election is 150 years old, and data proves it. I see no real data, that would tell me that this trend is bound to be reversed and Trump will win.

Why does this trend exist? Reason is very simple. There are enough American, who take enough pride in their vote, that they would not vote for a candidate from a party, whose president was recently impeached. I do not know the number, but it could be as high as 15%. I do not know how many % of voter Trump is losing because of impeachment, but it cannot be a meager number like 1%. If it is in the range of even 5%, Trump is history.

In entire 246 years on American history, only one incumbent president has overcome, the kind of poll deficit that Trump has, this close to the election. That was Harry Truman. But, case of Harry Truman was different. He came to office due to the death of Franklin Roosevelt. Thus, Truman election was not a referendum on his accomplishments. And even if was, Roosevelt- Truman four years had solid accomplishments. Dewey did get ahead in polls, but Truman erased it. Trump has tried very hard, to paint rosy picture of everything, even calling Coronavirus infection as God’s blessing. But his every attempt has failed. Independents (41% of voters), are and will till election day, will still judge, him based on his performance, and their vote (which will be election deciding), will be a referendum on what he accomplished in four years in office. If that were not the case, America would have become a horrifying banana republic long time ago. We Americans vote, hire, and fire based on performance, and not based on some silly emotions. Trump was elected by a razor thin margin, because he convinced, razor thin majority, that he will solve the problems, that Obama failed to solve. Even though Trump lied, people are in despair and believed him. That razor thin Trump majority in rust-belt swing states has already fallen apart. Democrat protest voters in 2016, came back home in 2018, and in rust-belt states, EVERY Trump supported Republican lost the election. Not only this, even in Trump states, like West Virginia, Alabama, Governorship of Kentucky, and Louisiana, everywhere else, majority of Trump supported senators and Gubernatorial candidates lost elections.

Democrats proposed 7 day voting is fraudulent