Today’s Events from a Big Cycle Perspective

2025-11-07

My perspective on how #expectations impact #happiness.

2025-11-05

As an investor, you don’t want to concentrate your bets — you want diversification, so you’re protected in different economic environments. That’s why alternative assets like gold are so valuable in balancing your portfolio. @TheProfGPod

2025-10-30

I sat down with CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin to discuss his latest book, 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History — and How It Shattered a Nation.

A lot of what Andrew learned researching this book is analogous to what happened during the 2008 financial crisis, and also to what is happening today. That’s because history moves in cycles — the same cause-effect relationships are at play, and there are important lessons to be learned.

While the details are different, the mechanics behind people’s behaviors and policy choices are largely the same.

Throughout history, people ignore these similarities because the mechanics are not well understood. My hope is that research and conversations like these can help us collectively make better choices in the future. Learn more about

2025-10-02

I can’t say exactly how effective Bitcoin is as a money, but it’s being perceived by many as an alternative money and so is worth paying attention to.

Money needs to be both a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth — and the latter is more important.

I doubt that any central bank will take it on as a reserve currency. That’s because all of the transactions are public, so there’s no privacy to it, and there’s a risk that in the future the code could be broken to make it less effective through government controls.

My personal approach is that I do have some Bitcoin in my portfolio, but not much. @TheMasterInvestorPodcast

You can watch the full conversation here:

2025-09-08

When I look at the US and global debt burdens and how countries are likely to respond, I worry about the possibility of creating a stagflationary environment.

Our financial system is dependent on the idea that you can take a debt asset and convert it into money. But now there’s not enough money to go around.

That makes the idea of devaluing the dollar relative to other currencies appealing — but the other currencies won’t want much of an appreciation either. That’s one of the reasons I say that gold will be a better performing asset.

2025-09-03

THESE are the most important things for teenagers to consider.

2025-07-09

I’ve gotten a lot of questions on the recent Trump tariffs and their impact on the global economy. There is a belief that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the United States, I am uncertain of that. You can learn more about why, and what the current big debt cycle the United States is going through in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.

#raydalio #principles #politics #economics

2025-06-30

Everybody I speak with on both sides of the aisle agrees that we need to get our spending down to 3% of GDP.

But politics is standing in the way of making good decisions. The idea of compromise is out.

I think we all agree that we’re in need of a big renovation. The question is how that renovation gets done — and there’s a lot of fighting over what that renovation might look like.

My advice: Politicians on both sides need to agree on a mutually acceptable “worst case scenario” that cuts spending to the level we need, if a broader agreement can’t be reached in the near future.