| When I was a young clerk on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in 1971, the US ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. Now, they didn’t say it that way. But by moving away from the gold standard — the idea that people could exchange paper dollars for gold — money, as we understood it, ended. I expected the stock market to plunge the next day, but when the opening bell rang the market was way up. And it went on to rise nearly 25%. That surprised me, because I had never experienced a currency devaluation before. But when I looked into it, I discovered the exact same thing happened in 1933 and it had the exact same effect. But in both cases, breaking the link to gold allowed the US to continue spending more than it earned, and so the value of each dollar fell. |
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If you are worried, then you don’t have to worry.
2025-11-13
One of my principles is that if you’re worried, you don’t need to worry — and if you’re not worried, you need to worry.
That’s because worrying about what can go wrong will protect you and not worrying about what can go wrong will leave you exposed.
I’ve found this to be true in business, and in life.
Why I’m Pessimistic About the Debt Problem
2025-10-24
The way I see it, any serious effort to solve the debt crisis will likely come too late.
It’s a timing issue. 2026 is a midterm election year — politicians won’t want to take the painful steps needed to improve our economic picture: cutting spending, raising taxes, and the like.
Any sort of bipartisan effort that comes after will both take time and be unlikely to be effective, because those commissions generally don’t work very well in practice.
That’s what it looks like to me. I’m curious to hear if you see things similarly.
@TheProfGPod
How to Hedge Against Risk
2025-09-24
I like inflation-indexed bonds — or TIPS (Treasury inflation protected securities) — because they guarantee a real return.
The markets are a zero sum game, and if you’re speculating, you’ll probably be the loser. But these bonds are among the safest asset classes you can find.
Ray Dalio Analyzes AI’s Impact on the Markets
2025-09-19
The reality is that AI is so revolutionary and so disruptive that it’s very hard to say for sure whether superscalers are currently priced accurately in the markets.
But what will be even more impactful and is not adequately priced in is the effect AI is going to have on applications of it on company earnings, efficiencies, and the like.
I’m often asked whether these future productivity improvements will convert to the profits and incomes needed to service the debt well. I’ve done the calculations, measuring it against other productivity miracles, and I think it’s very unlikely — though of course, I could be wrong.
As an investor, if you think that will happen, I suggest that you skew your portfolio accordingly. @MasterInvestorChannel
You can watch the full conversation here:
Ray Dalio Talks with CNBC’s Squawk Box About How the System Breaks Down Once a Lifetime
2025-07-16
The world order is now changing in a way that I described in my book and video Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. For a complete picture I encourage you to read the book or you can watch the animated video on my channel.
#raydalio #principles #politics #economics
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