Ray Dalio on the AI Bubble

2026-02-24

In my stage of life, I’m enjoying passing along the principles and thoughts that are helping me in order to help others. I’ve been doing that in my books and videos and here on social media, and I love our back-and-forth exchanges. To build on this, I will also be sharing my articles for free on Substack here: https://raydalio.substack.com/ for those readers who prefer that platform.

These articles will be about principles, tools, and what’s going on with life, work, economics, markets, politics, the changing world order, AI, the Big Cycle, and other such things. I look forward to continuing to get your thoughts and discussing these things with you.

#newsletter #raydalio #principles

2026-02-11

The changes in the US over the last decade — rising inequality, massive deficits, and a shifting global outlook — are not isolated events. They are all interconnected and part of a dynamic that has occurred many times before for largely the same reasons.

Understanding the mechanics at play matters far more than reacting to any short-term noise.

Studying these patterns can help you understand why populism of the right and the left is rising around the world, and why so many find it difficult to resolve their seemingly irreconcilable differences.

At least, that’s how I see it. I’m curious to hear if you agree.

2026-02-10

All empires since the Dutch have used capitalism to create a virtuous cycle that leads to an empire’s demise.What happens when an empire can no longer borrow the money necessary to repay its debts? History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:

1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts
2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation
3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism
4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources
5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order

Ultimately, this failure to control the anarchy is when

2026-01-23

We need to talk about money — what it is, how it works, and what its value is.

When it comes to gold, some people view it as a commodity to speculate on. But it’s so much more than that. It’s the second largest reserve currency in the world. And it’s an important hedge against risks to fiat currencies.

2025-12-08

When an empire runs out of its own money, it is able to increase the supply of money. However, printing more money causes borrowing to increase creating a financial bubble. I urge you to watch “The Changing World Order” on my YouTube channel to understand how, and what it means for all of us.

#principles #raydalio

2025-12-03

Easy money is a cure all, until it’s not. It’s hard to know when you have to put on the brakes and when things might pop.

Today, the stock market is at its peak, gold is through the roof, and the wealth gap continues to increase. And in terms of what comes next, it looks like we’re going to see a significant easing of monetary policy along with less regulation.

I recently sat down with CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin to discuss all of this and more. You can find the full video at the link in the comments.

2025-11-29

Trying to figure out your holiday gift giving this year? I have a great suggestion for you.

There are organizations like @TisBestCards and @donorschooseorg that will give a donation to your recipient’s favorite charity, on your behalf.

I think gifts like these are more in keeping with what the holiday season is really about, so I wanted to pass it along. #redefinegifting

2025-11-10

Don’t just react to pain — reflect on it. To overcome any obstacle, you must think deeply about how reality works and develop principles to guide your actions. That’s the only way to learn from your mistakes so you don’t repeat them. The pain is the signal! @TheDiaryOfACEO