Principles for Success: The Call to Adventure

2025-09-09

There are smart tariffs and there are not smart tariffs.

Every type of tax, tariffs included, has pros and cons. Done well, tariffs can provide a source of revenue while simultaneously reducing geopolitical risk.

But to be effective, they need to be engineered prudently, efficiently, and surgically.

2025-09-08

When I look at the US and global debt burdens and how countries are likely to respond, I worry about the possibility of creating a stagflationary environment.

Our financial system is dependent on the idea that you can take a debt asset and convert it into money. But now there’s not enough money to go around.

That makes the idea of devaluing the dollar relative to other currencies appealing — but the other currencies won’t want much of an appreciation either. That’s one of the reasons I say that gold will be a better performing asset.

2025-09-04

I’m doing an AMA on @reddit today, starting at 1pm ET.

I always enjoy hearing from you all, and discussing whatever’s on your mind.

So, if you have any questions for me, go check out the Reddit thread linked in the comments. I’ll get to as many as I can.

2025-09-03

I’m looking forward to doing another AMA and answering whatever questions you have on Thursday, 9/4 from 1-3pm ET.

For over 50 years, I’ve been in the business of studying the cause/effect relationships that drive how reality works and developing principles for dealing with reality well. I then programmed these principles into computers as decision rules to bet on them working. Because the causes come before the effects, this principles-based approach worked amazingly well for me.

Since I’m 76, I’m now at a stage in my life that I want to pass along what’s of value. So far, I’ve passed along my perspectives and principles about how to approach life, work, the changing world order, debt, and markets in my books, videos, and social media. But I think that what is most important is

2025-08-11

My view is that buying and holding real estate is not an effective investment strategy in our current economic environment, for a few reasons.

1) Real estate is more interest rate sensitive than it is inflation sensitive, so given our current circumstances it is likely to go down in real terms

2) It is a fixed asset that is easy to tax, which limits its impacts on your ability to diversify

3) Real estate is nailed down, so investing in it makes it more difficult to move money from one place to another

That’s my view, in a nutshell. I’m curious to hear if you agree.

#GovernmentDebt #debt #principles

2025-07-09

I’ve gotten a lot of questions on the recent Trump tariffs and their impact on the global economy. There is a belief that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the United States, I am uncertain of that. You can learn more about why, and what the current big debt cycle the United States is going through in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.

#raydalio #principles #politics #economics

2025-06-30

Everybody I speak with on both sides of the aisle agrees that we need to get our spending down to 3% of GDP.

But politics is standing in the way of making good decisions. The idea of compromise is out.

I think we all agree that we’re in need of a big renovation. The question is how that renovation gets done — and there’s a lot of fighting over what that renovation might look like.

My advice: Politicians on both sides need to agree on a mutually acceptable “worst case scenario” that cuts spending to the level we need, if a broader agreement can’t be reached in the near future.