How to Hedge Against Risk

2025-08-21

#Love is the most important soft skill…

2025-07-11

History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:

1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts
2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation
3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism
4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources
5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order

#principles #raydalio #history #debt

2025-07-02

After spending time in Washington, DC discussing the budget deficit with senior people on both sides of the aisle, it’s clear to me that we are unlikely to change the debt trajectory we’re on and avoid the painful consequences.

While virtually everyone agrees on the need to address our debt problem in a balanced way that includes tax increases and cuts to benefits, they also agree that they cannot speak up because politics have become absolutist.

We must find a solution around absolutist pledges like, ”I will not raise taxes,” or “I will not reduce benefits,” when they are desperately needed.

2025-06-17

We’re entering a period of history where countries must be much more self-sufficient.

Not just because of the debt and trade issues — and those imbalances are unsustainable — but also because of security.

With today’s geopolitical instability, a country like the U.S. can’t afford to be be dependent on imports from countries like China.

As a result, restructuring our trade relationships is critical and necessary.

At least, that’s what it looks like through my eyes. I’m curious to hear if you agree.

#raydalio #howcountriesgobroke #geopolitics #trade

2025-06-10

What’s happening now with money, debt, and credit has never happened before in our lifetime.

But it has happened many times in history, which is why I believe studying the past is so important. The same cycles repeat over and over again, and there are important lessons we can learn from those experiences.

If we apply that understanding to the issues we face today, we can increase the chances of positive geopolitical and economic outcomes. That’s good for all of us.

I enjoyed meeting with @imf to discuss this and answer questions about my new book, which dives deeper into these topics. It’s called How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, and it’s available now.

If you’re interested in learning more about our collective debt burden — and what steps we can take to solve these issues —