Tag Archive: Volatility

When Do We Know These Are Delusional Markets

Signs of complacency and disconnect from fundamentals abound. So to sanity check, it may still be helpful to periodically remind ourselves of a few recent ones. In no particular order. The Swiss National Bank bought $ 100bn between US and European stocks. It now owns 26 million Microsoft shares (read).

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Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Gold and Silver For Long Term

Bitcoin volatility shows not currency or safe haven but speculation. Volatility still very high in bitcoin and crypto currencies (see charts). Bitcoin fell 25% over weekend; Recent high of $3,000 fell to below $1,900. Bitcoin least volatile of cryptos, around 75% annualised volatility. Gold much more stable at just 10% annualised volatility.

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Central Banks Buying Stocks Have Rigged US Stock Market Beyond Recovery

Central banks buying stocks are effectively nationalizing US corporations just to maintain the illusion that their “recovery” plan is working because they have become the banks that are too big to fail. At first, their novel entry into the stock market was only intended to rescue imperiled corporations, such as General Motors during the first plunge into the Great Recession, but recently their efforts have shifted to propping up the entire stock...

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“It’s A Perfect Storm Of Negativity” – Veteran Trader Rejoins The Dark Side

After many months of fighting all the naysayers predicting the next big stock market crash, I am finally succumbing to the seductive story of the dark side, and getting negative on equities. I am often early, so maybe this means the rally is about to accelerate to the upside.

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SocGen: Beware The Ghost Of 1993

With Monday's financial media blasting reports about the VIX collapse to levels not seen in 24 years, going all the way back to 1993, it is worth remembering that the near record low volatility collapse of 1993 did not end well either for stocks, or for bonds, with the great 1994 bond tantrum. Reminding us of that, and of broader implications for the cross-asset space, is SocGen's Kit Juckes with his overnight note, "The ghost of 1993"

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Digital Gold – For Now Caveat Emptor

Bitcoin surpasses gold price - a psychological and arbitrary headline. Royal Mint blockchain gold asks you to trust in the UK government. Royal Canadian Mint and GoldMoney blockchain product asks you to trust in government and the technology, servers, websites etc of the providers. Invest in a gold mine using cryptocurrency - but wait until 2022 for your gold and trust the miners that it is there. Blockchain and gold will likely make a "good...

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The Psychological Impact Of Loss

For the third time in four weeks, the market was closed on Monday due to a holiday. Not only is this week shortened by a holiday, it is also coinciding with the annual Billionaire’s convention in Davos, Switzerland and the Presidential inauguration on Friday. Increased volatility over the next couple of days will certainly not be surprising.

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Nomi Prins’ Political-Financial Road Map For 2017

As tumultuous as last year was from a global political perspective on the back of a rocky start market-wise, 2017 will be much more so. The central bank subsidization of the financial system (especially in the US and Europe) that began with the Fed invoking zero interest rate policy in 2008, gave way to international distrust of the enabling status quo that unfolded in different ways across the planet.

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European Stocks Greet The New Year By Rising To One Year Highs; Euro Slides

While most of the world is enjoying it last day off from the 2017 holiday transition, with Asia's major markets closed for the New Year holiday, along with Britain and Switzerland in Europe and the US and Canada across the Atlantic, European stocks climbed to their highest levels in over a year on Monday after the Markit PMI survey showed manufacturing production in the Eurozone rose to the highest level since April 2011.

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Risk Happens Fast

As a teenager brimming with testosterone my reptilian brain loved action movies. Top of my list were Steven Seagal movies. Clearly it wasn't for his acting skills, which are only marginally better than Barney the dinosaur. What I loved about Seagal was that he was both deadly and terribly fast.

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Financial Repression Is Now “In Play”

A FALLING MARKET CANNOT BE ALLOWED – at any cost! The Central Bankers have clearly painted themselves into a corner as a result of their self-inflicted, extended period of “cheap money”. Their policies have fostered malinvestment, excessive leverage and a speculative casino approach to investments. Investors forced to take on excess risk for yield and scalp speculative investment returns, must operate in an unstable financial environment ripe for...

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Negative Rates and The War On Cash, Part 1: “There Is Nowhere To Go But Down”

As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion. Credit bubbles are dynamic — they must grow continually or implode — hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence.

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Greenspan explains negative Swiss Yields

For Alan Greenspan, negative Yield Reflect Spread between Italian and Swiss Bonds. For him, bond prices in general have risen too much.

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As Of This Moment, Barclays Is Not Accepting FX Stop Loss Orders

Anyone wondering why gaps and volatility in FX, and especially cable is reaching on the absured today, with 100 pips swings in minutes the norm, the reason is that there is virtually no liquidity.

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IIF Chief Warns “Brexit Bigger Threat To Global Economy Than Lehman”

As Brexit appears to gathering pace among British voters, Bloomberg Briefs interviews Hung Tan, executive managing director at the Institute of International Finance in Washington, DC., to understand the global impact of a decision by Britain to leav...

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Visualizing “The 5000 Year Long Run” In 18 Stunning Charts

In the long run, as someone once said, we are all dead, but in the meantime, as BofAML's Michael Hartnett provides a stunning tour de force of the last 5000 years illustrates long-run trends in the return, volatility, valuation & ownership of financi...

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The Twilight Of The Gods (aka Central Bankers)

The current financial market volatility increasingly reflects loss of faith in policy makers. Celebrity central bankers are learning that they must constantly produce new miracles for their followers.

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Futures Ignore Apple Plunge; Oil Rises Above $45 As Yellen Looms

For those who thought that the world's biggest company losing over $40 billion in market cap in an instant on disappointing Apple earnings, would have been sufficient to put a dent in US equity futures, we have some disappointing news: with just over...

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Futures Jump On Chinese Trade Data; Oil Declines; Global Stocks Turn Green For 2016

With oil losing some of its euphoric oomph overnight, following the API report of a surge in US oil inventories, and a subsequent report that Iran's oil minister would skip the Doha OPEC meeting altogether, the global stock rally needed another catal...

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Big Players (Read: Governments) Make Markets Unsafe

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. Reportage in The Wall Street Journal on April 4th states that “A fund owned by China’s foreign-exchange regulator has been taking stakes in some of the co...

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