Tag Archive: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected. If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

FX Daily, June 25: Contagion Growth and Calendar-Effect Saps Investor Enthusiasm

2020-06-25

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2020-06-25

Given the huge run-up in risk assets this quarter, and the technical indicators warning of corrective forces, concerns over the new infections is pushing on an open door. The S&P 500 gapped lower yesterday and fell 2.6%, led by energy and airlines. The NASDAQ snapped an eight-day rally. Follow-through selling in the Asia Pacific region saw most markets fall at least 1%, with Korea and Australia seeing losses in excess of 2%.

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FX Daily, October 9: Hope is Trying to Supplant Pessimism Today

2019-10-09

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2019-10-09

Overview: The 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 and the deterioration of US-China relations and the prospects of a no-deal Brexit failed did not carry over much into today's activity. Asia Pacific equities were mostly a little lower, though China and India bucked the regional trend, while Korea was closed for a national holiday. Taiwan led the losses amid a sell-off in semiconductor stocks.

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Oil: Supply and Demand Drivers

2018-04-26

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2018-04-26

Oil prices have recovered more than 50% of the decline since the mid-September peak. The next retracement objectives are found near $82 a barrel for Brent and $76.5 for WTI basis the continuation futures contract. The immediate consideration is that supplies have tightened.

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FX Daily, April 04: Trade Specificities Rattle Markets

2018-04-04

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2018-04-04

Late yesterday, the US announced that specific tariffs and goods that would be targeted for intellectual property violations. China had warned of a commensurate response and earlier today made its announcement. This sent reverberations through the capital markets, driving down equities, corn and soybean prices (subject to Chinese tariffs). The US dollar was sold, especially against the yen, euro, and sterling.

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FX Daily, March 28: Three Developments Shaping Month-End

2018-03-28

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2018-03-28

Today may be the last day of full liquidity until next Tuesday, after the Easter holidays. We identify three developments that are characterizing the end of the month, quarter, and for some countries and companies, the fiscal year. Equity market sell-off, bond market rally, and the continued rise in LIBOR.

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FX Daily, March 07: Renewed Threat of Trade War Makes Investors Angry

2018-03-07

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2018-03-07

In response to the resignation of one of the few "globalist" advisers in the US Administration, the resignation Cohn has sent ripples through the capital markets. Stocks have been marked down across the world. The prospects of a trade war are also not good for growth and it may be adding to the pressure on yields.

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FX Daily, February 22: All Eyes on Equities

2018-02-22

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2018-02-22

The dramatic reversal of US shares yesterday in the last hour of trading has once again pulled the proverbial rug beneath the feet of investors. The turn down, moreover, occurred near important technical levels, seemingly adding to the significance. Global equities have followed suit.

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FX Daily, February 14: Investors Remain Uneasy even as Equities Stabilize

2018-02-14

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2018-02-14

There is an unease that continues to hang over the market. It is as if a shoe fell last week, and most investors seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop. It is hard to imagine the kind of body blow that the equities took last week without some kind of follow through and knock-on effects. Moreover, the focus today on US CPI may prove for nought.

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FX Daily, February 07: Guns and Butter May Resolve US Legislative Logjam

2018-02-07

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2018-02-07

After a volatile session in North America, the major equity indices closed higher. In fact, the 1.75% rise in the S&P 500 was the best since November 2016. Asian equities stabilized, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was able to eke out a small gain. The European markets are moving higher is also posting early gains and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.45%, which threatens to snap the seven-day slide. However, the main challenge now is that the S&P...

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FX Daily, January 24: Dollar Takes Another Leg Lower

2018-01-24

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2018-01-24

North American session sold into the dollar's upticks and Asia followed suit, taking the greenback to new multi-year lows against the euro and sterling while pushing it below the JPY110 level for the first time since last September. US trade action has become latest element of the narrative the seeks to explain the dollar's slide and the decoupling of the greenback from interest rates.

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FX Daily, January 10: Yen Short Squeeze Extended

2018-01-10

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2018-01-10

Sparked by fears that the BOJ took a step toward the monetary exit by reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying, there is an apparent scramble to cover previously sold yen positions. The dollar finished last week near JPY113.00. It fell to about JPY112.35 yesterday, near the 50% retracement of the greenback's bounce from the late-November lows near JPY110.85.

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FX Daily, January 04: Greenback Continues to Consolidate Recent Losses

2018-01-04

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2018-01-04

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile across the board, though remaining largely in the ranges seen over the past couple of sessions. At the same time, the news stream suggests that the global synchronized growth cycle strengthened late last year and is bound to carry over into the New Year.

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FX Daily, December 13: Greenback Quiet Ahead of Five Central Bank Meetings

2017-12-13

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2017-12-13

The Federal Reserve gets the balling rolling today with the FOMC meeting, which is most likely to deliver the third hike of the year. Tomorrow, four European central banks meet: Norway, Switzerland, the UK, and the ECB. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose nearly 0.3%, though Japanese and Indian shares were lower. In Europe, the Down Jones Stoxx 600 is paring yesterday's gains (-0.2%) led by utilities and telecom. Consumer discretion and financials are...

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FX Daily, November 29: Sterling Charges Ahead on Brexit Hopes

2017-11-29

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2017-11-29

Prospects of a deal with the EU has sent sterling to its best level in two months against the dollar. It reached $1.3430 in early European turnover. It had sunk to nearly $1.3220 yesterday as European markets were closing, which was a four-day low. It is the strongest of the major currencies today, gaining about 0.4%. With today's gains has met our retracement target near $1.3415. The momentum appears to give it potential toward $1.3500 in the...

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FX Daily, November 01: Super 48 Hours

2017-11-01

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2017-11-01

This is it: The next 48 hours will be among the busiest of the year. The Bank of England meets tomorrow, and it not only gives a verdict on interest rates but also provides an update of its economic projections (Quarterly Inflation Report). And, among the innovations, the MPC minutes will be released. Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the market will have the ADP private-sector job estimate.

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FX Daily, October 25: Sterling and Aussie Interrupt the Waiting Game

2017-10-25

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2017-10-25

Most participants seemed comfortable marking time ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting, and an announcement President Trump's nominations to the Federal Reserve. However, softer than expected Australian Q3 CPI and a stronger than expected UK Q3 GDP injected fresh incentives. Australia reported headline CPI rose 0.6% in Q3.

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FX Daily, October 12: Discipline Argues Against Consensus Narrative

2017-10-12

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2017-10-12

Following the release of the FOMC minutes from last month's meeting, the consensus narrative that has emerged says that it was dovish because there is a growing worry the reason inflation fell is not simply due to transitory factors. This explains, according to the narrative the dollar's losses and the stock market rally.

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FX Daily, September 27: Dollar Builds on Gains

2017-09-27

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2017-09-27

The Federal Reserve may not be on a coordinated campaign to convince the markets of a pending rate hike as it did so effectively in late February and early March. But investors are getting the message. The Bloomberg calculation of the odds of a rate hike before the end of the year has risen to 70% from 53% before last week's FOMC meeting and 33.5% at the end of last month. The CME puts the odds at 81% up from 37% a month ago.

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