Tag Archive: University Of Michigan

Can’t Hide From The CPI

2017-11-19

by

2017-11-19

US Consumer Price Index, Jan 2016 - Oct 2017
On the vital matter of missing symmetry, consumer price indices across the world keep suggesting there remains none. Recoveries were called “V” shaped for a reason. Any economy knocked down would be as intense in getting back up, normal cyclical forces creating momentum for that to (only) happen. In the context of the past three years, symmetry is still nowhere to be found.

Read More »

US CPI: Inflation Still Isn’t About Inflation

2017-10-15

by

2017-10-15

US Consumer Price Index, Jan 2016 - Sep 2017
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose back above 2% in September 2017 for the first time since April. Boosted yet again by energy prices, consumer prices overall still aren’t where the Fed needs them to be (by its own policies, not consumer reality). In fact, despite a 10.2% gain in the energy price index last month, the overall CPI just barely crossed the 2% mark (though for the Fed it really needs to be closer to 3% to match a 2% PCE Deflator).

Read More »

Expectations and Acceptance of Potential

2017-09-23

by

2017-09-23

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, Jan 1997 - 2017
The University of Michigan reports that consumer confidence in September slipped a little from August. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment registered 95.3 in the latest month, down from 96.8 in the prior one. Both of those readings are in line with confidence estimates going back to early 2014 when consumer sentiment supposedly surged.

Read More »

Global Stocks Rise On “Growth Optimism”, Ignore Political Turmoil; Dollar, Oil Creep Higher

2017-07-31

by

2017-07-31

Stoxx Europe, Aug 2016 - 2017
S&P futures rose 0.1% on the last trading day of the month, trailing European and Asian markets boosted by China’s July Mfg. PMI, which despite declining from from 51.7 to 51.4, and missing expecations  of 51.5, saw the construction index rise to its highest level since December 13, sending Chinese iron ore futures surging and … Continue reading »

Read More »

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Fed, BOJ, BOE, SNB, US Inflation And Retail Sales

2017-06-13

by

2017-06-13

Known Unknowns
After a tumultous week in the world of politics, with non-stop Trump drama in the US, a disastrous for Theresa May general election in the UK, and pro-establishment results in France and Italy, this is shaping up as another busy week ahead with multiple CB meetings, a full data calendar and even another important Eurogroup meeting for Greece.

Read More »

Inflation Is Oil, But Inflation Is Much More Than Consumer Prices

2017-05-16

by

2017-05-16

CPI Changes On Energy, January 2016 - May 2017
The average annual change in the WTI benchmark price was in April about 25%. That was still a sizable increase year-over-year, and just marginally less than March’s average of 33%. For calculated inflation rates, it represents the last of the base effects that have to this point made it appear as if economic improvement was possibly serious.

Read More »

Global Stocks Soar On Stimulus Hopes After Miserable Chinese, Japanese Data; Short Squeeze

2016-02-15

by

2016-02-15

Bad news is once again good news... for stocks that is.  After a month and a half of markets unable to decide if they should buy or sell on ugly data, over the weekend, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan expressed faith in the economy, ...

Read More »

Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted

2016-01-15

by

2016-01-15

   "We're gonna need a bigger Bullard"     - overheard on a trading desk this morning. Yesterday, when looking at the market's "Bullard 2.0" moment, which was a carbon copy of the market's kneejerk surge higher response to Bullard's "QE4" comments fr...

Read More »