Tag Archive: Swiss real estate

Is EUR/CHF 1.30 Possible?

Growth Differential CH Eurozone UBS


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Why negative Swiss rates would imply that the Swiss franc appreciates

Negative Interest Rates SNB


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Credit Suisse Study: Swiss Real Estate Market Needs Higher Rates

2013-03-07

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2013-03-07

Swiss Real Estate Income vs. Price
A new study by Credit Suisse claims that the SNB needs to hike interest rates in order to avoid excessive risk taking in real estate markets; in particular around the centers of Geneva and Zurich, but also in the Southern Swiss cantons with lower income, but high real estate prices.

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What Ernst Baltensperger Got Wrong: Why SNB FX Losses Might Not Be Recovered By Income on Reserves

Baltensberger
Opposed to Ernst Baltensperger, we think that the risk of losses on the SNB balance sheet and of an asset price bubble might be more important than the dangers of upcoming Swiss inflation.

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

Sell in May, Come back in October
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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SNB Sight Deposits Rise by 100 Million CHF, Week January28

2013-01-28

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2013-01-28

SMI vs DAX January 2013
While FX traders and some hedge funds are long EUR/CHF and some short covering happened, sight deposits show a different picture. They rise again, this time with 100 million francs (see details) in one week. Risk-off investors are not convinced yet that the euro crisis is finished, while other investors keep profit of the rising SMI...

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Swiss Public Discussion Switched from Floor to Housing Bubble

2013-01-10

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2013-01-10

UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index
Why there is no real estate bubble in Switzerland yet and why the SNB will help to create one   With the current recovery in the United States the discussion in Switzerland switched from a discussion about the EUR/CHF floor to the Swiss real estate boom, the so-called “housing bubble”. It seems that the Swiss …

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The UBS Swiss Real Estate Index in Risk Zone Again

2012-12-17

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2012-12-17

UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index
The UBS Swiss real estate bubble index has reached the risk zone again.More on UBS.

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How Currency Speculators Help the SNB to Fight against Ordinary Investors

2012-12-05

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2012-12-05

UBS Export-weighted exchange rate CHF
A discussion in the investor forum made clear how currency speculators currently help the SNB to maintain the floor against normal investors. A situation that was different in August/September 2011, when the SNB had to fight against these speculators.   A discussion in the investor forum Seeking Alpha: part one   Based on our analysis of …

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The win of the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the SNB

2012-06-25

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2012-06-25

Jordan
  The win for the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), even if the fear of an immediate bank-run and extreme money flows into Switzerland are avoided.  Also the fact that QE3 is not coming in the next weeks did not help the SNB.

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Is the SNB prepared for the black swan ?

2012-06-14

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2012-06-14

Will the SNB printing policy lead to inflation and a housing bust when Germany leaves the Euro ? Recently the voices for a German euro exit have become louder and louder. The most recent voice comes from Biderman , the FT says that the rise of German Bunds holds the secret how the eurozone crisis will … Continue reading...

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A central bank running suicide ? SNB prints at pace never seen since EUR/CHF parity in August 2011

2012-06-04

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2012-06-04

Printing PressClick
  The most recent money supply data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has shown increases of huge amounts. As compared with its loss of 19 bln. francs in 2010 (3% percent of the Swiss GDP), the central bank printed tremendous 17.3 bln. in the week ending in June 1st and 13 bln. in the one …

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SNB buys Swiss Francs and sells Euro: Welcome to the EUR/CHF peg

2012-05-01

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2012-05-01

dailyfx long eur/chf q1 2012
Why the big Q1 loss of the SNB was actually a big win for the central bank Anybody watching the EUR/CHF exchange rate this year was wondering why the volatility the pair saw last year had completely left. The pair slowly fell from 1.2156 over 1.2040 at the end of Q1 to 1.2014 today. FX … Continue reading...

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Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?

Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction. Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...

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Recent History of the Swiss Franc: April 2009

2009-04-30

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2009-04-30

crosses 2 apr 09
A history of the EUR/CHF from the website ForexLive April 2009 Selling EUR/CHF Seems Akin To Poking Billy Goat Gruff With A Sharp Stick It seems to me selling the EUR/CHF cross down here is akin to poking the elder billy goat gruff with a sharp stick.  You get it, Alpine meadows, goat herds….(Ok I know … Continue reading »

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