Tag Archive: stocks

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

It wasn’t a very good two weeks for economic data with the majority of reports disappointing. Most notable I think is that the so called “soft data” is starting to reflect reality rather than some fantasy land where President Trump enacts his entire agenda in the first 100 days of being in office. Politics is about the art of the possible and that is proving a short list for now.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. The performance of markets in the first quarter of the year was a bit schizophrenic. Stocks performed well which one might interpret as a reflection of improving economic growth prospects. Certainly President Trump and his proxies were quick to take credit but unfortunately for the new...

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Earnings per Share: Is It Other Than Madness?

As earnings season begins for Q1 2017 reports, there isn’t much change in analysts’ estimates for S&P 500 companies for that quarter. The latest figures from S&P shows expected earnings (as reported) of $26.70 in Q1, as compared to $26.87 two weeks ago. That is down only $1 from October, which is actually pretty steady particularly when compared to Q4 2016 estimates that over the same time plummeted from $29.04 to $24.16. At $26.70, that would...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

The Fed did, as expected, hike rates at their last meeting. And interestingly, interest rates have done nothing but fall since that day. As I predicted in the last BWER, Greenspan’s conundrum is making a comeback. The Fed can do whatever it wants with Fed funds – heck, barely anyone is using it anyway – but they can’t control what the market does with long term rates.

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The Inverse of Keynes

With nearly all of the S&P 500 companies having reported their Q4 numbers, we can safely claim that it was a very bad earnings season. It may seem incredulous to categorize the quarter that way given that EPS growth (as reported) was +29%, but even that rate tells us something significant about how there is, actually, a relationship between economy and at least corporate profits.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. The Fed spent the last month forward guiding the market to the rate hike they implemented today. Interest rates, real and nominal, moved up in anticipation of a more aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again at their meeting next week. They obviously view the recent cyclical upturn as being durable and the inflation data as pointing to the need for higher rates. Our market based indicators agree somewhat but nominal and real interest rates are still below their mid-December peaks so I don’t think a lot has changed.

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Do Record Debt And Loan Balances Matter? Not Even Slightly

We live in a non-linear world that is almost always described in linear terms. Though Einstein supposedly said compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe, it rarely is appreciated for what the statement really means. And so the idea of record highs or even just positive numbers have been equated with positive outcomes, even though record highs and positive growth rates can be at times still associated with some of the worst. It...

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No Paradox, Economy to Debt to Assets

It is surely one of the primary reasons why many if not most people have so much trouble accepting the trouble the economy is in. With record high stock prices leading to record levels of household net worth, it seems utterly inconsistent to claim those facts against a US economic depression.

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The Market Is Not The Economy, But Earnings Are (Closer)

My colleague Joe Calhoun likes to remind me that markets and fundamentals only sound like they should be related, an observation that is a correct one on so many different levels. Stock prices, in general, and GDP growth may seem to warrant some kind of expected correlation, but it has proven quite tenuous at times especially in a 21st century sense.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

The economic data since my last update has improved somewhat. It isn’t across the board and it isn’t huge but it must be acknowledged. As usual though there are positives and negatives, just with a slight emphasis on positive right now. Interestingly, the bond market has not responded to these slightly more positive readings with nominal and real yields almost exactly where they were in the last update 3 weeks ago. In other words, there’s no reason...

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Fed GDP Projections

“It is not surprising the Fed once again failed to take action as their expectations for economic growth were once again lowered. In fact, as I have noted previously, the Federal Reserve are the worst economic forecasters on the planet.

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Weekend Reading: Another Fed Stick Save, An Even Bigger Bubble

As I noted on Thursday, the Fed non-announcement gave the bulls a reason to charge back into the markets as “accommodative monetary policy” is once again extended through the end of the year. Of course, it is not surprising the Fed once again failed ...

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FX Weekly Preview: Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

Global bonds and global stocks ended last week on a weak note and this will likely carry into this week's activity. The Bank of England meets, but the data may be more important. Oil and commodity prices more generally look vulnerable, and this coupled with higher yields sapped the Australian ad Canadian dollar in the second half of last week.

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Weekend Reading Negative Rates: The Coin Flip Market

As summer begins to fade, and kids return to school, the focus once again turns to the annual event of Central Bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. However, if you only looked at the market as a gauge as to the excitement of the event, well it must have been one pretty boring after-party.

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Will Gold Outperform Stocks?

Will stocks go up more, or will gold outperform? With the paperocentric theory, this is hard to answer. We have to estimate rates of inflation (meaning increases in the quantity of dollars) and calculate how much inflation (meaning rising prices of all things, consumer and asset) that will cause. Then we have to somehow put a value on gold. It boils down to a guess.

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9) Markets

We are currently looking for an curator of this category. The aim is explain how to obtain sustainably nice returns on stocks and bonds. The focus here should be also on global macro. Sustainability is key: "buy today and sell far in the future", for example when you get retired. Publicity for own books or publication is allowed.

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SNB Q1/2014 Results: 1.7% annualized Yield on Seigniorage, 2% annualized Loss on FX Rate Change

The main task of a central bank occupied with QEE (quantitative easing or exchange intervention) is to obtain higher gains on seigniorage than it loses with its "ever appreciating" currency. Otherwise its equity capital would be absorbed.

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The Fed Poisons The Stock Market

The Fed has pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system since 2008. The unintended consequences of this bank bailout have spilled over into the markets. Fed money injections go directly into bonds, tending to push up their prices.

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In Which Positions Does the SNB Win and Where Does it Lose Money: Details on the Q3 Results

UPDATE October 31, The official press release focused on the results for Q1 to Q3. The loss was 6.4 billion after a 7.3 bln. CHF loss in the first two quarters. Over all three quarters especially gold and the yen weakened the central bank’s positions. For the third quarter, it means that income was positive … Continue reading »

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