Tag Archive: stocks

Fed GDP Projections

“It is not surprising the Fed once again failed to take action as their expectations for economic growth were once again lowered. In fact, as I have noted previously, the Federal Reserve are the worst economic forecasters on the planet.

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Weekend Reading: Another Fed Stick Save, An Even Bigger Bubble

As I noted on Thursday, the Fed non-announcement gave the bulls a reason to charge back into the markets as “accommodative monetary policy” is once again extended through the end of the year. Of course, it is not surprising the Fed once again failed ...

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FX Weekly Preview: Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

Global bonds and global stocks ended last week on a weak note and this will likely carry into this week's activity. The Bank of England meets, but the data may be more important. Oil and commodity prices more generally look vulnerable, and this coupled with higher yields sapped the Australian ad Canadian dollar in the second half of last week.

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Weekend Reading Negative Rates: The Coin Flip Market

As summer begins to fade, and kids return to school, the focus once again turns to the annual event of Central Bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. However, if you only looked at the market as a gauge as to the excitement of the event, well it must have been one pretty boring after-party.

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Will Gold Outperform Stocks?

Will stocks go up more, or will gold outperform? With the paperocentric theory, this is hard to answer. We have to estimate rates of inflation (meaning increases in the quantity of dollars) and calculate how much inflation (meaning rising prices of all things, consumer and asset) that will cause. Then we have to somehow put a value on gold. It boils down to a guess.

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9) Markets

We are currently looking for an curator of this category. The aim is explain how to obtain sustainably nice returns on stocks and bonds. The focus here should be also on global macro. Sustainability is key: "buy today and sell far in the future", for example when you get retired. Publicity for own books or publication is allowed.

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SNB Q1/2014 Results: 1.7% annualized Yield on Seigniorage, 2% annualized Loss on FX Rate Change

The main task of a central bank occupied with QEE (quantitative easing or exchange intervention) is to obtain higher gains on seigniorage than it loses with its "ever appreciating" currency. Otherwise its equity capital would be absorbed.

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The Fed Poisons The Stock Market

The Fed has pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system since 2008. The unintended consequences of this bank bailout have spilled over into the markets. Fed money injections go directly into bonds, tending to push up their prices.

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In Which Positions Does the SNB Win and Where Does it Lose Money: Details on the Q3 Results

UPDATE October 31, The official press release focused on the results for Q1 to Q3. The loss was 6.4 billion after a 7.3 bln. CHF loss in the first two quarters. Over all three quarters especially gold and the yen weakened the central bank’s positions. For the third quarter, it means that income was positive … Continue reading »

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Our Detailed Estimate of SNB Q2 Results: 17 Billion Francs Loss, The Reality 18 Billion

UPDATE: July 30th, 2013: Our estimate for the quarterly loss missed the reality by 1 billion francs. The quarter results: 18.3 billion francs loss. The loss for H1 was 7.3 billion CHF. July 1st 2013: We estimate that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a loss of 17.3 billion francs in the second quarter 2013. … Continue reading »

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