Tag Archive: silver basis

The Purchasing Power of Capital, Report 29 Sep

2019-10-01

We discuss capital consumption all the time, because it is the megatrend of our era. However, capital consumption is an abstract idea. So let’s consider some concrete examples, to help make it clearer. First, let’s look at the case of Timothy Housetrader. Tim has a small two-bedroom house. Next door, his neighbor Ian Idjit, owns a four-bedroom house which is twice the size.

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Treasury Bond Backwardation, Report 22 Sep

2019-09-24

by Keith Weiner

2019-09-24

Something happened in the credit market this week. A Barron’s article about it began: “There have been disruptions in the plumbing of U.S. markets this week. While the process of fixing them was bumpy, it was more of a technical mishap than a cause for investor concern.” Keep Calm and Carry On. So, before they tell us what happened, they tell us it’s just plumbing, it’s been fixed, and that we should not be concerned.

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Why Are People Now Selling Their Silver? Report 15 Sep

2019-09-17

by Keith Weiner

2019-09-17

This week, the prices of the metals fell further, with gold -$18 and silver -$0.73. On May 28, the price of silver hit its nadir, of $14.30. From the last three days of May through Sep 4, the price rose to $19.65. This was a gain of $5.35, or +37%. Congratulations to everyone who bought silver on May 28 and who sold it on Sep 4.

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How Is Negative Interest Possible? Report 8 Sep

2019-09-10

by Keith Weiner

2019-09-10

Germany has recently joined Switzerland in the dubious All Negative Club. The interest rate on every government bond, from short to 30 years, is now negative. Many would say “congratulations”, in the belief that this proves their credit risk is … well … umm … negative(?) And anyways, it will let them borrow more to spend on consumption which will stimulate … umm… well… all of the wasteful consumption for which governments are rightly...

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Asset Inflation vs. Consumer Goods Inflation, Report 1 Sep

2019-09-03

by Keith Weiner

2019-09-03

A paradigm is a mental framework. It has a both a positive pressure and a negative filter. It structures one’s thoughts, orients them in a certain direction, and rules out certain ideas. Paradigms can be very useful, for example the scientific method directs one to begin with facts, explain them in a consistent way, and to ignore peyote dreams from the smoke lodge and claims of mental spoon-bending.

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Directive 10-289, Report 25 Aug

2019-08-26

by Keith Weiner

2019-08-26

Everyone must ask himself the question. Do you want the world to move to an honest money system, or do you just want gold to go up (we italicize discussion of apparent moves in gold, because it’s the dollar that’s moving down—not gold going up—but we sometimes frame it in mainstream terms).

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Deflation Is Everywhere—If You Know Where to Look, Report 18 Aug

2019-08-19

by Keith Weiner

2019-08-19

At a shopping mall recently, we observed an interesting deal at Sketchers. If you buy two pairs of shoes, the second is 30% off. Sketchers has long offered deals like this (sometimes 50% off). This is a sign of deflation. Regular readers know to wait for the punchline. Manufacturer Gives Away Its Margins

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The Economic Singularity, Report 11 Aug

2019-08-13

by Keith Weiner

2019-08-13

We have recently written several essays about the fallacious concept of Gross Domestic Product. Among GDP’s several fatal flaws, it goes up when capital is converted to consumer goods, when seed corn is served at the feast. So we proposed—and originally dismissed—the idea of a national balance sheet.

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I Know Usury When I See It, Report 4 Aug

2019-08-05

by Keith Weiner

2019-08-05

“I know it, when I see it.” This phrase was first used by U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, in a case of obscenity. Instead of defining it—we would think that this would be a requirement for a law, which is of course backed by threat of imprisonment—he resorted to what might be called Begging Common Sense. It’s just common sense, it’s easy-peasy, there’s no need to define the term…

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Obvious Capital Consumption, Report 28 Jul

2019-07-30

by Keith Weiner

2019-07-30

We have spilled many electrons on the topic of capital consumption. Still, this is a very abstract topic and we think many people still struggle to picture what it means. Thus, the inspiration for this week’s essay. Suppose a young man, Early Enterprise, inherits a car from his grandfather. Early decides to drive for Uber to earn a living. Being enterprising, he is up at dawn and drives all day.

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The Fake Economy, Report 21 Jul

2019-07-23

by Keith Weiner

2019-07-23

Folks in the liberty movement often say that the economy is fake. But this does not persuade anyone. It’s just preaching to the choir! We hope that this series on GDP provides more effective ammunition to argue with the Left-Right-Wall-Street-Main-Street-Capitalists-Socialists.

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How to Fix GDP, Report 14 Jul

2019-07-16

by Keith Weiner

2019-07-16

Last week, we looked at the idea of a national balance sheet, as a better way to measure the economy than GDP (which is production + destruction). The national balance sheet would take into account both assets and liabilities. If we take on another $1,000,000 debt to buy a $1,000,000 asset, then we have not added any equity.

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More Squeeze, Less Juice, Report 7 Jul

2019-07-08

by Keith Weiner

2019-07-08

We have been writing on the flaws in GDP: that it is no measure of the economy, because it looks only at cash and not the balance sheet, and that there are positive feedback loops. “OK, Mr. Smarty Pants,” you’re thinking (yes, we know you’re thinking this), “if GDP is not a good measure of the economy, then what is?!”

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GDP Begets More GDP (Positive Feedback), Report 30 June

2019-07-02

by Keith Weiner

2019-07-02

Last week, we discussed the fundamental flaw in GDP. GDP is a perfect tool for central planning tools. But for measuring the economy, not so much. This is because it looks only at cash revenues. It does not look at the balance sheet. It does not take into account capital consumption or debt accumulation. Any Keynesian fool can add to GDP by borrowing to spend. But that is not economic growth.

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What Gets Measures Gets Improved, Report 23 June

2019-06-25

by Keith Weiner

2019-06-25

Let’s start with Frederic Bastiat’s 170-year old parable of the broken window. A shopkeeper has a broken window. The shopkeeper is, of course, upset at the loss of six francs (0.06oz gold, or about $75). Bastiat discusses a then-popular facile argument: the glass guy is making money (to which all we can say is, “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”).

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The Elephant in the Gold Room, Report 16 June

2019-06-17

by Keith Weiner

2019-06-17

We will start this off with a pet peeve. Too often, one is reading something about gold. It starts off well enough, discussing problems with the dollar or the bond market or a real estate bubble… and them bam! Buy gold because the dollar is gonna be worthless! That number again is 1-800-BUY-GOLD or we have another 1-800-GOT-GOLD in case the lines on the first number are busy!

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Irredeemable Currency Is a Roach Motel, Report 9 June

2019-06-10

by Keith Weiner

2019-06-10

In what has become a four-part series, we are looking at the monetary science of China’s potential strategy to nuke the Treasury bond market. In Part I, we gave a list of reasons why selling dollars would hurt China. In Part II we showed that interest rates, being that the dollar is irredeemable, are not subject to bond vigilantes.

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Dollar Supply Creates Dollar Demand, Report 2 June

2019-06-03

by Keith Weiner

2019-06-03

We have been discussing the impossibility of China nuking the Treasury bond market. We covered a list of challenges China would face. Then last week we showed that there cannot be such a thing as a bond vigilante in an irredeemable currency. Now we want to explore a different path to the same conclusion that China cannot nuke the Treasury bond market.

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The Crime of ‘33, Report 27 May

2019-05-28

by Keith Weiner

2019-05-28

Last week, we wrote about the impossibility of China nuking the Treasury bond market. Really, this is not about China but mostly about the nature of the dollar and the structure of the monetary system. We showed that there are a whole host of problems with the idea of selling a trillion dollars of Treasurys: Yuan holders are selling yuan to buy dollars, PBOC can’t squander its dollar reserves If it doesn’t buy another currency, it merely tightens...

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China’s Nuclear Option to Sell US Treasurys, Report 19 May

2019-05-21

by Keith Weiner

2019-05-21

There is a drumbeat pounding on a monetary issue, which is now rising into a crescendo. The issue is: China might sell its holdings of Treasury bonds—well over $1 trillion—and crash the Treasury bond market. Since the interest rate is inverse to the bond price, a crash of the price would be a skyrocket of the rate. The US government would face spiraling costs of servicing its debt, and quickly collapse into bankruptcy.

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