Tag Archive: Real Estate

Pending Home Sales: Home Attitude Adjustments

2017-07-06

by

2017-07-06

US Pending Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported today that pending home sales declined for the third straight month. As with so many other accounts, it’s not really the downside that is relevant but how instead there has been little to no growth for quite some time now. The NAR’s index value, which is how the organization reports the level of pending sales, was 108.5 in May 2017. That’s up 42% from the low in 2010, but also slightly less than...

Read More »

The Swiss National Bank Owns $80 Billion In US Stocks – Here’s The Catch

2017-07-03

by

2017-07-03

Switzerland is a small country of just 8 million people, but they make an outsized impact on economics and finance and money. Because Switzerland is considered a safe haven and a well-run country, many people would like to hold large amounts of their assets in the Swiss franc. This makes the Swiss franc intolerably strong for Swiss businesses and citizens. So the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has to print a great deal of money and use nonconventional...

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update:

2017-06-24

by

2017-06-24

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-05-27

by

2017-05-27

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are, however, changes within the asset classes. We are reducing the equity allocation and raising the allocation to REITs. 

Read More »

Housing’s Echo Bubble Now Exceeds the 2006-07 Bubble Peak

2017-04-30

by

2017-04-30

US S&P Case-Shiller SF Home Price Index, 1980 - 2017
A funny thing often occurs after a mania-fueled asset bubble pops: an echo-bubble inflates a few years later, as monetary authorities and all the institutions that depend on rising asset valuations go all-in to reflate the crushed asset class.

Read More »

Where There’s Smoke…

2017-04-25

by

2017-04-25

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDP, December 2016 - April 2017
Central banks around the world have colluded, if not conspired, to elevate and prop up financial asset prices. Here we'll present the data and evidence that they've not only done so, but gone too far. When we discuss elevated financial asset prices we really are talking about everything; we're talking not just about the sky-high prices of stocks and bonds, but also of the trillions of dollars’ worth of derivatives that are linked to them, as well...

Read More »

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-04-25

by

2017-04-25

bi-weekly
It wasn’t a very good two weeks for economic data with the majority of reports disappointing. Most notable I think is that the so called “soft data” is starting to reflect reality rather than some fantasy land where President Trump enacts his entire agenda in the first 100 days of being in office. Politics is about the art of the possible and that is proving a short list for now.

Read More »

Don’t Confuse Immigration With Naturalization

2017-03-28

by

2017-03-28

As the immigration debate goes on, many commentators continue to sloppily ignore the difference between the concept of naturalization and the phenomenon of immigration. While the two are certainly related, they are also certainly not the same thing. Recognizing this distinction can help us to see the very real differences between naturalization, which is a matter of political privilege, and immigration, which simply results from the exercise of...

Read More »

The VIX Will Be Over 100 due to Central Bank Created Tail Risk

2017-02-07

by

2017-02-07

Switzerland Central Bank Balance Sheet
We discuss the manner in which Central Banks have destroyed financial markets, and have the stage for what I label as the Red Swan Event in this video. When the Swiss National Bank holds risky Tech stocks in its portfolio, we are in unchartered territory!

Read More »

Gold Price In GBP Up 4 percent On Brexit and UK Risks

2017-01-10

by

2017-01-10

Gold Price in GBP
Gold Price In GBP Rises 4% On Brexit and UK Economy Risks. Pound fell 2% against gold yesterday after Theresa May created Brexit concerns. May's 'Hard Brexit' denial does not calm markets growing fears. Investors concerned about lack of government strategy and uncertainty. UK Prime Minister bizarrely blames media and "those who print things" for sterling depreciation. GBP gold builds on 31% gain in 2016 with 4% gain so far in 2017.

Read More »

Risk Reward Analysis for Financial Markets

2017-01-08

by

2017-01-08

Stock Market Crash 1929
We focus this video regarding the potential upside for stocks versus the considerable downside risk for investors. All Technical Analysis is flawed and backward looking, it is a Critical Thinking flaw to extrapolate the future from the most recent past. I want to know the next market move, and not still be stuck on the most recent market move. And the most important fact of all is valuations, stocks are in a bubble right now due to Central Banks...

Read More »

A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

2017-01-05

by

2017-01-05

hind-sight
A couple weeks ago I was lucky enough to see a live one hour interview with Michael Lewis at the Annenberg Center about his new book The Undoing Project. Everyone attending the lecture received a complimentary copy of the book. Being a huge fan of Lewis after reading Liar’s Poker, Boomerang, The Big Short, Flash Boys, and Moneyball, I was interested to hear about his new project.

Read More »

Moody’s & Reserve Bank of Australia Warn of Increasing Mortgage Arrears and Looming Apartment Defaults

2016-12-25

by

2016-12-25

chart-1-moodys-delinqueny-rate
Moody’s & Reserve Bank of Australia Warn of Increasing Mortgage Arrears and Looming Apartment Defaults. Last Wednesday Moody’s reported that mortgage arrears continue to rise across Australia, particularly in the mining states of WA & NT:

Read More »

D-day for Australia’s Real Estate Bubble?

2016-11-04

by

2016-11-04

Shack
Unknowable Degrees of Bubble Insanity Back in February, we brought you an update on the truly insane real estate bubble in Australia (see: “Australia’s Housing Bubble – In the Grip of Insanity” for details) in the wake of Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception reporting on an eye-opening fact-finding tour in Sydney.

Read More »

Argor-Heraeus: Another giant Swiss gold refinery goes on the Sales Lot

2016-11-03

by

2016-11-03

Fine gold
News has just emerged in the gold market that the giant Swiss precious metals refiner Argor-Heraeus has held discussions to be acquired, and that the likely outcome is an acquisition by a private equity group. This private equity group is believed to be London-based WRM CapInvest, part of Zurich headquartered WRM Capital.

Read More »

Jim Grant Puzzled by the actions of the SNB

2016-10-27

by

2016-10-27

James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of a crash in sovereign debt, is puzzled over the actions of the Swiss National Bank and bets on gold.

Read More »

If You Can’t Touch It, You Don’t Own It

2016-10-24

by

2016-10-24

The pending Brexit has, not surprisingly, caused a shakeup in the investment world, particularly in the UK. Of particular note is that, recently, asset management firms in Britain began refusing their clients the right to cash out of their mutual funds. Of the 35 billion invested in such funds, just under £20 billion has been affected.

Read More »

Australian property bubble on a scale like no other

2016-10-11

by

2016-10-11

Australian House Miden Multiples
Bubble trouble. Whether we label them bubbles, the Australian economy has experienced a series of developments that potentially could have the economy lurching from boom to bust and back. In recent years these have included: The record run up in commodity prices and subsequent correction. The associated boom in mining investment and current reversal. Record low bond yields. The boom in housing construction. Specifically apartments, that was spurred...

Read More »

The Education Bubble: Is A Harvard MBA Worth $500,000?

2016-10-04

by

2016-10-04

College students are back at their desks this month facing bleak prospects. With tightening job markets leaving kids with no place else to go, universities continue to jack up fees. The upshot is growing signs that America is in the midst of an “education bubble,” just as big as those in stock, bond, and real estate markets. Case in point: four years at Harvard University now costs nearly $250,000 [1]. If you want an MBA, add another $200,000.

Read More »

Negative Rates and The War On Cash, Part 1: “There Is Nowhere To Go But Down”

2016-09-04

by

2016-09-04

As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion. Credit bubbles are dynamic — they must grow continually or implode — hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence.

Read More »