Tag Archive: newsletter

The Employment Situation Is Still a Disaster

2020-06-13

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2020-06-13

US Unemployment Rate, 2011-2020
Last Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released new unemployment data. The report surprised many because it showed a decrease in the unemployment rate, while many observers had expected an increase.

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Reject the “Next Generation EU Plan”

2020-06-13

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2020-06-13

The Václav Klaus Institute urging the Czech Government to reject the dangerous Ursula von der Leyen´s plan. It is rather rare that I share articles on my channel that are not from my own pen. The following article is therefore an exception and for good reason. It is written by none other than the former President of the Czech Republic Václav Klaus, with whom I have a long-standing relationship, based on great respect and many shared values.

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FX Daily, June 12: Licking Yesterday’s Wounds Today

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Overview:  The nearly three-month rally in risk assets ended with high drama with a stomach-churning almost 6% slide in the S&P 500 yesterday. Follow-through selling was seen in the Asia Pacific region, but most markets recovered from their lows, and although losses were still recorded, the downside momentum seemed broken. The same holds true for Europe. Bourses opened lower but by mid-morning had moved higher (~1.4%) and US shares are trading...

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Expats in Switzerland need even deeper pockets

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Three Swiss cities – Zurich, Bern and Geneva – are among the ten most expensive in the world for expatriates, according to the annual Cost of Living survey by consultants Mercer. Hong Kong remains at the top of the list of 209 countries for the third year in a row. Six of the top ten are in Asia, three in Switzerland and one in the United States.

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Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Equity Markets YTD Performance, 2020
Today’s risk off price action appears to have been triggered by profit-taking; the dollar has gotten some traction. The Fed expanded its Main Street Loan Program to include more businesses; the jobs rebound has removed a sense of urgency regarding the next round of fiscal stimulus.

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We Have Reached The Silly Phase of the Bull Market

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Have we entered a new bull market? Was the 35% pullback in the S&P 500 in March the fastest bear market in history? Or is this just a continuation of the bull market that started in 2009, interrupted by a rather large correction? Bull markets and bear markets are about behavior, about the human emotions of fear and greed. While we got a brief bout of fear in March, greed has since overwhelmed all sense, common and otherwise.

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Mark Packard’s Value Learning Process: The Two Kinds of Knowledge Entrepreneurs Must Have

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

The Two Kinds of Knowledge Entrepreneurs Must Have
Key Takeaways and Actionable Insights. Innovation is one of the keys to business success. The world is changing at such a pace, and your customers’ preferences are changing so fast, that your business has to change at the same speed, or even faster. How to keep up is a part of the entrepreneurial challenge.

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Economic Collapse Has Turned Many Europeans against the EU

2020-06-12

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2020-06-12

Eurozone Economy Shrinks at Record Pace, 1999-2020
Since the beginning of the year, the corona crisis has monopolized news coverage to the extent that a lot of very important stories and developments either went underreported or were ignored altogether. One such example was the very surprising ruling that came out of the German Constitutional Court in early May, which challenged the actions and remit of the European Central Bank (ECB).

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FX Daily, June 11: Are Risk Appetites Satiated, or Simply Taking the Day Off?

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

Many observers are attributing the sell-off in risk assets today to the Federal Reserve's pessimistic outlook, yet, as we note below, the Fed's median GDP forecast this year is better than many international agency forecasts, including the OECD's that was issued yesterday.  Moreover, some near-term trends were already in place.

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Swiss Post set to relaunch its e-voting system

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

The controversial issue of e-voting is back: Swiss Post, which had halted the development of a project in July 2019, has bought a Spanish-owned system and plans to propose a platform ready for testing by 2021.

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OECD forecasts drop in Swiss economic growth in 2020

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

Even though restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of Covid-19 were less strict than in other countries, Switzerland will still see its GDP fall by 7.7%, if the pandemic is contained by summer.

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Dollar Broadly Weaker Ahead of FOMC Decision

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

US HY Yield, 2019-2020
The FOMC decision comes out this afternoon and we expect a dovish hold; this would of course be negative for the dollar. Ahead of the decision, May CPI will be reported; the budget statement will be of interest; Brazil reports May IPCA inflation. We are still getting mixed messages about Europe’s flagship €750 bln recovery package; French April IP fell -20.1% m/m.

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Dollar Stabilizes as the New Week Begins

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

Coronavirus Daily Change, 2020
The dollar has stabilized a bit; Friday’s US jobs data could be a game changer. The US bond market selloff continues; for now, the weak dollar trend is hard to fight. The Brazilian government has found a way to make a bad situation worse by trying to control its Covid-19 statistics.

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Why Gold Is Safe Haven Money And Will Go Over $3,000/oz

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

That’s a question I’m asked frequently. It’s usually followed by a comment along the lines of, “I don’t get it. It’s just a shiny rock. People dig it out of the ground and then put it back in the ground. What’s the point?”

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Technocracy vs Liberty

2020-06-11

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2020-06-11

“I prefer true but imperfect knowledge, even if it leaves much undetermined and unpredictable, to a pretense of exact knowledge that is likely to be false.” Friedrich August von Hayek

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FX Daily, June 10: Corrective Forces Still Seem in Control Ahead of the FOMC Outcome

2020-06-10

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2020-06-10

The pullback ins US shares yesterday has not derailed the global advance. Japanese and Chinese markets were mixed, the Hang Seng slipped, and Indonesia was hit with profit-taking, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain. It has fallen once past two and a half weeks. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 opened higher but is falling for the third consecutive session.

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Swiss develop first see-through mask

2020-06-10

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2020-06-10

A fully transparent surgical mask that filters out germs but allows facial expressions to be seen has been developed by Swiss scientists. Caregivers should be able to wear them from the summer of 2021.

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Coronavirus: WHO changes advice on masks

2020-06-10

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2020-06-10

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently changed its advice on face masks. It now recommends healthy people wear them in public when social distancing is not possible, stating that they could provide a barrier for potentially infectious droplets.

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Our Latest Thoughts on the Dollar

2020-06-10

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2020-06-10

Dollar Index, 2015-2020
The dollar remains under pressure, due in large part to the Fed’s aggressive efforts to inject stimulus. We see dollar weakness persisting near-term. From a longer-term perspective, we note that the greenback remains largely rangebound and is unlikely to fall below its 2018 lows.

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A Second Against Consumer Credit And Interest ‘Stimulus’

2020-06-10

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2020-06-10

Consumer Credit, Levels SA 2006-2020
Credit card use entails a degree of risk appreciated at the most basic level. Americans had certainly become more comfortable with debt in all its forms over the many decades since the Great Depression, but the regular employment of revolving credit was perhaps the apex of this transformation. Does any commercial package on TV today not include one or more credit card offers? It certainly remains a staple of junk mail.

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