Tag Archive: newsletter

Swiss unemployment hit ten-year low in 2018

2019-01-08

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2019-01-08

The unemployment rate in Switzerland averaged 2.6% in 2018, a ten-year low, after strong economic growth in the first six months of the year, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The department said just over 118,000 people were registered with regional job centres during 2018 - 17.5% fewer than the previous year.

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China Adds 320,000 Ounces To Gold Reserves – First PBOC Purchase Since October 2016

2019-01-08

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2019-01-08

China Year-End Purchase, Mar 2016 - Dec 2018
China increases gold holdings by large 320,000 ounces. Gold bullion remains a tiny component of the People’s Bank of China massive foreign exchange (FX) reserves which rose to $3.073 trillion. China’s gold reserves rose for first time since October 2016 to 59.56 million ounces by the end of December (1,853 metric tons) from 59.24 million ounces. Gold climbed 5% in December on equity rout, growth concerns

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Living In The Present

2019-01-08

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2019-01-08

10-Year US Treasury Yield 2016-2018
It’s that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read the tea leaves. What will happen in 2019? Will it be as bad as 2018 when positive returns were hard to come by, as rare as affordable health care or Miami Dolphin playoff games? Will China’s economy succumb to the pressure of US tariffs and make a deal?

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UnterBlog und Horst Lüning – Vorstellung

2019-01-07

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✘ Werbung: https://www.Whisky.de/shop/ Hier lernen Sie mich als Ersteller des UnterBlogs kennen. Kurzer Lebenslauf, wer bin ich und was habe ich bislang gemacht? Aktuell arbeite ich im Marketing- und der IT bei Whisky.de GmbH & Co. KG und genieße gerne Whisky. Sie können hier im UnterBlog Geheimnisse und nicht so geheime Dinge erfahren, die von Politik und Medien gerne verschwiegen werden. Ich habe einen Blick auf die Welt als Unternehmer. Für...

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Surest Way to Overthrow Capitalism, Report 6 Jan 2019

2019-01-07

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2019-01-07

Gold and Silver Price
One of the most important problems in economics is: How do we know if an enterprise is creating or destroying wealth? The line between the two is objective, black and white. It should be clear that if business managers can’t tell the difference between a wealth-creating or wealth-destroying activity, then our whole society will be miserably poor.

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FX Daily, January 07: Recovery Falters in Europe

2019-01-07

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2019-01-07

Overview:  The combination of robust US jobs and wage growth, more comforting words from Powell and a strong rally US stocks before the weekend helped lift Asian markets today and underpinned risk-taking appetites.  However, renewed protests in France (and Hungary) coupled with weak German factory orders have prevented European bourses from fully participating in the equity recovery. 

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FX Weekly Preview: For the Millionth Time, Markets Exaggerate

2019-01-07

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2019-01-07

The S&P 500 fell more than 12% in a few weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 40 bp. There were cries that the sky was falling. A recession is imminent, we are warned by prognosticators. The Fed went ahead and raised interest rates on March 21, 2018, and the S&P 500 proceeded to gap lower the next day and continued to sell-off the following day. Investors did not like the unanimous decision.

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Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary?

2019-01-07

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2019-01-07

S&P 500 Large Cap Index 2017-2018
It's not yet clear that the stock market swoon is predictive or merely a panic attack triggered by a loss of meds. We contrarians can't help it: when the herd is bullish, we start looking for a reversal. When the herd turns bearish, we also start looking for a reversal.

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VAT now applied to most foreign online shopping from 1 January 2019

2019-01-06

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2019-01-06

In 2016, Switzerland’s government decided to tighten the VAT exemption on imported purchases, a move that affects most online orders from foreign retailers. The new rules took effect on 1 January 2019 – they were originally planned for 1 January 2018 but systems and processes were not ready.

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More Unmixed Signals

2019-01-06

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2019-01-06

China PMI 2010-2018
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that the country’s official manufacturing PMI in December 2018 dropped below 50 for the first time since the summer of 2016. Many if not most associate a number in the 40’s with contraction. While that may or not be the case, what’s more important is the quite well-established direction.

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EU needs more flexible negotiation tactics: UBS chairman

2019-01-05

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2019-01-05

The European Union should stop dictating terms to Switzerland and start negotiating an acceptable compromise if it wants to find agreement on future ties, says UBS chairman Axel Weber. In an interview with the Tages-Anzeiger newspaper, Weber said the current EU demands are unlikely to be approved by the Swiss people should they be put to a referendum.

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Mispriced Delusion

2019-01-05

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2019-01-05

Money Markets Equivalents 2009-2018
Recency bias is one thing. Back in late 2006/early 2007 when the eurodollar futures curve inverted, for example, it was a textbook case of mass delusion. All the schoolbooks and Economics classes had said that it couldn’t happen; not that it wasn’t likely, it wasn’t even a possibility. A full-scale financial meltdown was at the time literally inconceivable in orthodox thinking.

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Apple, China, Yen, and US Jobs: Welcome to 2019

2019-01-04

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2019-01-04

The New Year is off to an auspicious start.  The Japanese yen, the third most actively traded currency behind the dollar and euro, got caught in a vortex of a retail short squeeze, algos, and who knows what else.  The US dollar plunged from around JPY109 to a slightly below JPY105 in a few minutes a little more than an hour after US markets closed yesterday.  

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One in two Swiss is happy with personal finances

2019-01-04

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2019-01-04

One Swiss in two is satisfied with the state of their financial situation, according to a study. Just under a third (28%) expect their finances to improve in 2019. The French-speaking population is feeling much more positive than last year.

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Hedge Funds, ETFs, Central Banks Suffer Billions In Losses On Apple

2019-01-04

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2019-01-04

Biggest Losers
It wasn't that long ago that Apple was the most beloved stock by the hedge fund community, and although in recent months the company's popularity faded somewhat among the 2 and 20 crowd it is still one of the most popular names among the professional investing community. Which on a day that saw AAPL stock tumble as much as 10% is clearly bad news.

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Nothing To See Here, It’s Just Everything

2019-01-04

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2019-01-04

NYMEX WTI Futures 2016-2018
The politics of oil are complicated, to say the least. There’s any number of important players, from OPEC to North American shale to sanctions. Relating to that last one, the US government has sought to impose serious restrictions upon the Iranian regime. Choking off a major piece of that country’s revenue, and source for dollars, has been a stated US goal.

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Insane Repo Reminds Us

2019-01-04

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2019-01-04

Money Markets Equivalents 2009-2018
It was only near the quarter end, that’s what made it so unnerving. We may have become used to these calendar bottlenecks over the years, but they still remind us what they are. Late October 2012 was a little different, though. On October 29, the GC repo rate for UST collateral (DTCC) surged to 52.6 bps. The money market floor, so to speak, was zero at the time and IOER (the joke) 25 bps. We also have to keep in mind the circumstances of that...

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GBP/CHF Forecast: Swiss Franc at Best Level against the Pound in over a year

2019-01-03

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2019-01-03

Brexit uncertainty causes Swiss Franc to gain vs the Pound. The Pound is now trading at its lowest level to buy Swiss Francs in over twelve months as the political uncertainty surrounding the UK is continuing to negatively affect the value of Sterling exchange rates.

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Visitors flock to Swiss ski resorts over Christmas and New Year

2019-01-03

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2019-01-03

Ski resorts have reported a busy period over Christmas and the New Year with numerous visitors enjoying the sunny weather and good snow conditions. The chic resort of Verbier in canton Valais registered over 20,000 skiers a day over the Christmas period, Laurent Vaucher, director of the Téléverbier lift company, told Keystone SDA on Wednesday.

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The Crisis of 2025

2019-01-03

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2019-01-03

S-curve of Rapid Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
This is the predictable path because it's the only one that's politically expedient and doesn't cause much financial pain until it's too late to stave off collapse. While many fear a war between the nuclear powers or the breakdown of civil order, I tend to think the Crisis of 2023-26 is more likely to be financial in nature.

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